The Study Of The Stock Intrinsic Value Based On Fuzzy Theory

As the developing and standardization of stock market,deepening of market innovation and continuous improvement of the disclosure of information,the securities market has became an important place for investors for asset value,and more and more investors have participated in portfolio investment.However,the paper through the ADF test and serial autocorrelation test found compared with developed countries,there is a gap in the market in China where is still in a weak efficient phase.But precisely because of the weakness of the stock market effective period,fundamental analysis could provide effective help to the investment decision,through performance of the stock market,industry development and operations of the company and other information to determine a stock's intrinsic value,make investment decisions,and obtain excess returns.Based on the previous proposed on the basis of the intrinsic value of the stock assessment model using fuzzy optimum decision method presents a new valuation model that estimate intrinsic value of stock in this paper.For a company,its fundamental information not only related to the company's management level of profitability,assets and other information,but also related to the overall development of its industry trends.So extension of fundamental concept is vague.In this fuzzy environment,based on dividend discount valuation model,price-earnings ratio valuation models,market net valuation models to get the stock's intrinsic value is relatively vague.And three valuation model concerning the fundamentals of information have different emphases: dividend discount valuation models focus on corporate dividends and corporate profitability;price/earnings ratio approach focus on the industry development of the target company;price/book ratio approach focus on each share corresponds to the net assets of the company.But at the same time,three common valuation models reflect the same fundamentals of target company,and these three kinds of valuation models limited and constrainted by each other.This paper based on the fuzzy theory,construct fuzzy sets using three valuation methods and then get fuzzy optimal decision-making by fuzzy programming method,which is the new valuation method.Finally,four kinds of valuation model of internal value of Guizhou maotai are compared with the stock market price,which found fuzzy estimation method of intrinsice valuation to make up for deficiencies in the three traditional valuation methods and intrinsic valuation and market price fit higher and more stable.Accuracy of fuzzy valuation is superior to other valuation models.