Real Estate Price Bubble Calculation And Analysis Based On The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

China's real estate market's every move,affects governments,investors and developers,and causes some series discussion and the corresponding behaviors.Many people believe that the real estate price bubble is only the regional phenomenon and it's too early to rupture,due to the government's powerful support to the real estate market;Others think that the real estate market,especially the first-tier cities real estate market,the real estate price bubble may rupture at any time because of some reason.Beijing and Shanghai's housing price to income ratio,remain above 14 for 3 consecutive years.According to the international standard,the housing price to income ratio more than six,can be viewed as the real estate price bubble.Housing price to income ratio,above 14 for 3 years in a row,has more than 2 times the housing price to income ratio standard.However,Beijing,Shanghai's real estate price bubble does not break,and gradually become the most valuable investment area of estate market all over the country.What is the reason? Is there something wrong with the standard of housing price to income ratio? Or the judgment method of the standard of the real estate price bubble is too single? This article try to find the multiple factors that could induce the real estate price bubble,for the calculation and analysis of the real estate price bubble,to prevent using single factor to judge the real estate price bubble,which could cause partial analysis.In this paper,combining with related literature,set up 11 factors which could cause the real estate price bubble,including Housing price to income ratio,Sale and rental ratio,Real estate investment as a share of GDP,House price growth rate/CPI growth rate,Real estate investment growth rate/GDP growth rate,Real estate investment/ fixed assets investment,Real estate price growth rate/GDP growth rate,Housing sales growth rate/social consumer goods retail sales growth rate,The vacancy rate,Personal housing loan growth rate/growth rate of per capita income,Housing construction area/completed real estate area.As the factor set,Fuzzy hierarchy analysis and fuzzy judgment matrix is obtained by the comparison of importance of the factors,combined with the knowledge of the corresponding fuzzy hierarchy method,the final weight vectors is deduced.Finally got a ranking of the housing price bubble of the first and second tier of the city.Finally we can get corresponding conclusions and policy Suggestions.