The Impact Of Housing Price Fluctuation On Urban Residents' Consumption Empirical Analysis

Since the reform and opening up,China's rapid economic development,after the cancellation of the housing system in 1998,the real estate market began to develop rapidly,housing prices from 1853.56 yuan / square meter in 1998 growth to 5933.29 yuan / square meter in 2014,the real estate industry has developed into the pillar industry of the national economy has played a great role in stimulating the growth of the national economy and has led to the development of other industries related to it.On the other hand,higher and higher housing prices have already brought a heavy burden to the residents.To this end part of the population and live frugally and reduce consumer spending,Although China's economic growth is very fast,consumption level is significantly higher than before,consumption as one of the three carriages to stimulate economic development,compared with other developed countries,China has been the problem of under-consumption,and in recent years,China's Consumption rate has been declining,therefore,the relationship between housing price fluctuations and consumer spending has become a hot issue for scholars.Based on the western consumption theory,this paper uses the data of 31 provinces in 1998 to 2014 as the samples to analyze the impact of housing price fluctuation on the consumption of urban residents.In order to make the empirical results more effective and stable,this paper uses static panel Model and dynamic panel model to analyze the results show that housing prices on urban residents have a significant wealth effect.As China's housing prices rose steadily before 2003,housing prices began to rise rapidly after 2003,so in 2003 as a node,the 1998 to 2014 is divided into two time periods,the use of two-stage system GMM model,To analyze the impact of rising housing prices on consumption,the results show that in1998-2003,housing prices on the consumption of significant wealth effect,the impact coefficient of 0.28,the empirical results from 2004 to 2014 shows that the impact of rising housing prices on consumption For 0.07,compare the impact of housing price volatility on consumption in these two time periods.It can be found that in recent years,with the increasing of housing prices in our country,the wealth effect of real estate has weakened.Indicating that China's real estate market with the gradual rise in housing prices wealth weakened.Although the housing prices rose on the overall consumption of urban residents there is a wealth effect,but different consumption categories are different,this paper is divided into consumer consumption and non-housing consumption of two categories,empirical results show that housingprices have a significant inhibitory effect on housing consumption,Non-housing consumption to promote the role.Per capita disposable income of urban residents is still an important factor affecting residents' consumption.In dynamic panel analysis,consumption inertia has a great impact on current consumption expenditure.In order to be able to play the wealth of real estate market in China for a long time,but also to prevent the emergence of real estate bubble,at the end of the article,according to the empirical results of this paper,put forward some targeted policy recommendations.