Research On The Effect Of Housing Price Fluctuation On Chineseurban Household's Consuming Behavior

In the process of economic development,resident consumption plays an important role in economic growth.At present,the trade war between China and the United States continues to proceed,and China's export has been greatly affected.Moreover,the prospect of the trade war is not yet clear.Therefore,China's economy is in urgent need of exploring new growth points,which provides space for stimulating domestic demand and promoting household consumption.Consumption contributes a lot to China's GDP,and compared with major developed countries,China's household consumption is still at a low level,with great room for improvement.On the one hand,as an extremely important family wealth,the increase in the value of real estate plays a role in promoting household consumption,but on the other hand,the constantly high housing price makes residents have to take into account the demand for house purchase when consuming,which may have an inhibitory effect on household consumption.Housing is an important part in residents' life.The fluctuation of housing price is an environment that every family must face.In order to formulate corresponding policies to effectively promote household consumption,it is extremely important to study the relationship between housing price fluctuations and household consumption.Currently,housing price becomes a more popular topic,researching of housing price's influence on the consumption behavior of urban households in China not only conducive to the further development of China's consumer finance research,but also contribute to dealing with the real estate bubble in China and stimulating economic growth.It has two kinds of significances.Macroscopically speaking,it is beneficial for the government to formulate corresponding policies for the regulation and control of housing price by researching whether housing price has an impact on the household consumption of urban residents in China and through what ways.On the micro level,through the stratified study of various categories of families,we can explore the state of life and the living pressure of different types of families,and deepen our understanding of family life in our society.This paper mainly adopts the following three research methods: first,the theoretical analysis.The theoretical analysis part of this paper analyzes the different transmission mechanism of housing price fluctuations on the basis of the classical consumption theory.Second,it combines qualitative and quantitative analysis.This paper describes the fluctuation of housing price and the current situation of residents' consumption in China since the 21 st century by using qualitative methods and in the empirical part,stata13 software was used to conduct regression analysis on the data samples of Chinese household tracking survey.Third,the hierarchical cluster control method is used when it explores the heterogeneous effects of wealth effect and crowding out effect on different types of families.The framework of this paper is to introduce the background and significance of the topic,introduce the research methods,and then review the relevant literature at home and abroad.Then,the transmission mechanisms of wealth effect and crowding-out effect are sorted out,and the principle of each mechanism is analyzed theoretically.Next is the introduction of volatility of housing prices in China and the situation of Chinese household consumption.And then a research hypothesis is established.This paper introduces the data used,and explains the reason of variable selection and model setting.Then the sample data are empirically analyzed.Finally,according to the research results,this paper summarizes the research conclusions and gives relevant policy recommendations.As to the empirical analysis aspect,the latest CFPS survey data are used and the bidirectional fixed effect model is used for the econometric analysis.When studying the wealth effect,we use the households with houses as the research sample.When studying the crowding out effect,the full sample is used for regression analysis.In order to avoid the possible endogenous problems in the model,this paper uses the volatility of the per capita residential land supply as the instrumental variable of the housing price volatility.This paper makes a group analysis of urban residents with different housing property rights,different per capita living area and different education levels.We draw the following conclusions in this paper: first,the wealth effect of housing price is significant,but very weak.The crowding out effect is also significant.Second,the housing price fluctuation has different influence on different types of consumption: wealth effect mainly exists in the food consumption,health care consumption and educational and entertainment consumption.Crowding out effect mainly exists in food consumption,living expenditure and household equipment consumption.The wealth effect is most obvious in multi-suite families,and the crowding out effect is most obvious in families with no house.Facing the upward fluctuation of housing price,households with a low per capita living area express more obvious consumption reduction.The wealth effect is not detected in the families with low education level,and the crowding out effect is more obvious.The innovations of this paper are: first,the perspective of the study is relatively new.This paper makes a comparative analysis of the different mechanisms of the transmission of housing price fluctuations,so the families with no house can be investigated.Second,the data's timeliness is stronger.The real estate market is heavily influenced by government policy instruments and many new policies have come out in recent years.This paper uses the data from 2016 annual survey of CFPS which is the data just released.The shortcomings of this paper are as follows: first,it lacks the data when the housing price declines,so we failed to observe the consumption behavior of urban households when the housing price fluctuates downward.Second,there is a lack of suitable housing price data in the study of crowding out effect.Due to the limitation of data availability,the housing price fluctuation faced by each family cannot be accurately matched to the specific housing price fluctuation of the county or community where the family is located,so we have to use the provincial housing price data.