Research On The Impact Of China's Monetary Policy On Urban Real Estate Bubbles

In recent years,real estate prices in China,especially large and medium-sized cities,have increased rapidly,speculation has been serious,and the real estate bubble has attracted widespread attention from all sectors of society.Even Xi Jinping's report in the 19th Congress emphasized that"we need insist that the real estate is used to live,not speculate".The purpose of this paper is to measure the value of real estate bubbles and the degree of frothiness and study currency in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China.The purpose of this paper is to measure the real estate bubble value and bubble level in 35 large and medium-sized cities in our country and to study the impact of monetary policy on real estate bubbles to show the real situation of China's real estate market,and put forward its own policy recommendations for the government to manage the real estate bubble.Firstly,this paper defines the connotation of the bubble and real estate,and studies the method of measuring the real estate bubble.Through comparison,it is found that the advantages of the economic fundamental method are more obvious.This paper also summarizes the literature on the impact of monetary policy on real estate bubbles,and finds that they are little relatively.Then,this paper introduces the history and current situation of China's real estate market,and uses differential GMM to estimate the dynamic panel model to actually estimate the real estate bubble value and bubble degree in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China.It was found that at most of the 35 large and medium-sized cities in China,the real estate bubble was small before about 2005;then the bubble fluctuated until it reached a peak around 2010,then slowly declined,and increased again in the past two or three years;and overall,the bubble at the coastal cities(including Beijing)was consistently higher than inland cities,especially the west cities.Finally,this paper empirically studies the impact of monetary policy on the urban real estate bubble in China using the PVAR model and finds that quantitative monetary policy can have a significant positive impact on the real estate bubble at the national level,coastal and western cities,and have significant long-term effects at coastal and western cities;price-based monetary policies have significant negative effects at the national level and in coastal cities,and can have a greater impact on coastal real estate bubbles,but the effect is not significant on western cities bubbles.Because the level of real estate bubbles in different cities in China is different,and the impact of monetary policy on the real estate bubble in different cities is also different,the government should try to avoid the use of a unified monetary policy to regulate the national real estate market.