Research Of Chinese Manufacturing Industry Listed Company's Financial Situation Evaluation,Classification And Forecast

With twenty years of development of China's capital market,the environment and quality of capital markets has been significantly improved,the number of listed companies also will continue to increase.As a listed company is on behalf of our company,the quality of its financial situation directly determines the quality and stability of China's securities market.In the study of evaluation and classification of the company's financial condition time,many scholars have divided the financial situation of the listing Corporation into two categories,that is,financial distress and financial normal,the two classification studies is too simple to reflect the reality accurately.Therefore,the multi-classification study of the stock market listed company,and by the changes in the status of the company's financial position in successive years,the possibility judgment and prediction listed company's financial situation in the next period,it is very necessary for the respective stake holders of the company,and has great theoretical and practical significance.The paper selected the 412 manufacturing listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen as research object,based on these companies' 2008-2013 financial data.selected 16 financial indicators.Firstly,the factor analysis is used to reduce the dimension of multiple targets,and 5 main factors are extracted,evaluated the financial status of the manufacturing listing Corporation in China;Secondly,the use of cluster analysis method of K-means method on the financial situation of listed companies clustering,the company is divided into four financial situation:excellent financial,normal financial,potential financial crisis and financial crisis;Finally,the Markov forecasting method is combined with the probability matrix of financial situation transfer in one years,so as to forecast the fluctuation of the financial situation in the next phase.In this paper,the conclusions are as follows:(1)in the evaluation of the company's financial situation,found that the comprehensive score of the most manufacturing companies is less than 0,their comprehensive performance is under the average level of the industry,the company must improve the financial situation of the company by finding out the key factors of affecting the company's financial condition;(2)the proportion of the number of Companies in the potential crisis situation is the largest,it indicates the phenomenon of the financial situation of the listing Corporation in China is generally poor;(3)in the study of the forecast of the financial,jump phenomenon exists in the financial situation of the company,namely,the financial outstanding company in the next year may also change a potential financial crisis or financial crisis company,it breaks the "financial situation of the continuous changes of hypothesis".