Research On Risk Evaluation Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment In Agriculture Of Private Enterprises,Based On The Case Of 116 Private Enterprises In Sichaun And Yunan

Agriculture as the foundation of national economy,encourage and accelerate the enterprises "going out" has become an urgent need which to alleviate the constraints of resources and environment,situation of food security,enhance the international competitiveness of agricultural products and capacity of agricultural sustainable development.In promotion of the agricultural "going out" strategy and "along the way"strategy,private enterprises go out faster,which become the main force over the state-owned enterprises in the past two years.However,due to the large amount of investment,long recovery period and strong sensitivity,the scale of private enterprises is small,the integration of industry chain is low,the competitiveness is not strong,the financing channels are narrow and the examination and approval procedures are complicated,besides,the investment environment of the host country is complex and changeable,fierce competition,so that the risk of outward foreign direct investment in agriculture of private enterprises increased greatly,so the scientific and accurate risk analysis and evaluation is particularly important,which is the basis of success and protection for private enterprises to carry out foreign direct investment activities.This paper chooses the private enterprises of Sichuan and Yunnan provinces to carry out agricultural direct investment overseas as the research object,and use the regional economic theory,international production eclectic theory,international investment risk theory and existing research results to construct the theoretical analysis frame,using the literature research method,the questionnaire survey method,the factor analysis method and the entropy-TOPSIS method to analyze and evaluate the risk of the private enterprise OFDIagr.The main contents include:(1)rely on the project team on the two provinces of foreign direct investment in agricultural data collection and analyz the private status of two provinces;(2)use SPSS20.0 software and factor analysis method to build the risk assessment index system of private enterprises OFDIagr;(3)Combine the entropy method and the TOPSIS method to construct the composite evaluation model,evaluate the risk of the private enterprises in the two province which invested in Southeast Asia;(4)Carry out the suggestions for private enterprises which to make OFDIagr decision and cope with risk in the future.The results showed that:(1)the growth rate of the private enterprises OFDIagr in the two provinces is fast,the development status is important and the geopolitical investment is obvious,which is concentrated in the Southeast Asian region of Asia,but asset size is small,the investment period is shorter,the professional talent is lack,the investment in the industry is uneven and the investment effect is to be improved;(2)The private enterprise OFDIagr is faced with the complexity of risk,among which the four risk factors of agribusiness risk,interest rate risk,agricultural product risk and enterprise development strategy risk are relatively insignificant compared with other 19 risk factors;(3)the risk evaluation index system is builded by seven first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators,which obtain political risk,resource risk,technical risk,environmental risk,market risk,transaction risk,management risk;(4)under the single risk factor,the risk of investment in the six countries of the two provinces is different.,from the comprehensive evaluation,the investment risk of Laos,Vietnam,Thailand,Myanmar,Indonesia and Cambodia is increasing gradually.For the research conclusions,put forward the recommendations:(1)participate in international cooperation actively,increase the policy support;(2)establish the information sharing platform to enhance the level of public services;(3)pay more attention to technology and talent,enhance international competitiveness;(4)make reasonable investment decisions,Avoid blind investment;(5)strengthen the management of private enterprise,improve risk response capacity;(6)implement the social responsibility standards strictly,establish a good corporate image;(7)establish the national risk assessment system,and guide private enterprises to invest correctly.