Study On The Option Ordering Strategy Of Fresh Agricultural Products Under Supply Uncertainty Situation

With the increasingly strong demand for fresh agricultural products,the fresh product supply chain has witnessed the active involvement of major companies,such as SF-best from SF-express,T mall fresh,MUM'S SELECTION from YTO express,Alibaba Group and Suning Investment Group who successively led the Yigou's B and C round of financing investments.Fresh electricity supplier industry presents a red sea.It is very important how to optimize supply chain's performance,boost profits of the upstream and downstream firms and perfect the management decision-making.Since the supply and demand of fresh agricultural products are hardly predictable,it is prone to resulting in uneven supply and demand situation when the sales season approaches.In case of uncertain market demand,retailers could choose to invest in a low-cost,unreliable(uncertain supply)supplier and a high-cost,reliable supplier.Based on the related research at home and abroad and exist problems in practical management,this paper constructs a single purchase mode---the basic wholesale price contract ordering model under the certain and uncertain demand respectively,with the consideration of supply uncertainty.On this basis,this paper establishes an mixed order method---the wholesale price contract and option contract mixed pricing model,by means of introducing the option contract of the financial derivatives.This research shows that the higher the wholesale price is,the better the superiority and the flexibility of the option contract can reflect.Under the situation of single option contract,the fluctuation of the purchase price of option has a greater impact on profits.Otherwise,under the situation of mixed order mode,the fluctuation of option execution price has a greater impact on the expected profit.The results indicate that compared with the single order mode,the mixed order mode can not only improve the retailer's expected profit remarkably,but also optimize the supply chain's performance,so that they may increase the flexibility of the supply chain when dealing with the risk,cause the enterprise procurement model which could be more cost-effective.It is of great significance to the real enterprises,especially the fresh agricultural retailers,which can make use of wholesale price contract in conjunction with an option contract.It is beneficial to the sustainable development of the whole market environment.