| After the reform and opening up,the Chinese economy started to grow at a rapid rate and the GDP is the second highest in the world,people's income has been increased step by step and the quality of life has improved greatly.At the same time,the real estate industry also gets rapid development;people's living conditions and environment are constantly improving.However,the rapid economic development causes dramatic fluctuations of the house prices,especially in first and second tier cities,and residential life pressures continue to rise as prices continue to rise.It is an urgent problem to stabilize our country's housing prices.Therefore,studying the impact of economic growth on housing prices through the econometric model is of great practical significance.The main research contents of dissertation include:firstly,it introduces the background and the significance of the thesis,literature review home and aboard,research methods and theoretical basis of the research;secondly,it introduces the current situation of economic development and real estate market development in China and the interaction between the two through descriptive statistics.Thirdly,according to the current domestic research status,this paper first selects the data of the national GDP and housing prices to establish Vector Error Corrected Model with Markov Regime Switching and investigate the nonlinear mechanism of economic growth and housing price conversion,and fourth use the 35 large and medium-sized cities nationwide 2002-2015 Year panel data and non-parametric panel models to analyze the relevant variables of economic growth:GDP,total population at the end of the year,year-end savings of urban residents,per capita disposable income,sales area of commercial buildings,completed housing area,relationship between real estate investment level on housing price of the non-linear relationship,the coefficient of each factor drawn on each variable point-by-point trends in the change.Finally,summarizing the conclusions of the study and put forward the relevant policy suggestions.The main conclusions of the dissertation are as follows:(1)There is a long-term,stable and balanced relationship between economic growth and housing price changes.(2)Economic growth and housing prices have obvious characteristics of the three areas divided into "recession phase","moderate growth phase" and "rapid growth phase."(3)The relationship between the various zoning system showed different performance,the difference between the duration of the zoning system and the probability of transition was large,this shows that there is a certain asymmetry between economic growth and housing price.(4)In the non-parametric panel model,the GDP,the total population at the end of the year,the year-end savings of urban residents,the per capita disposable income and the level of real estate investment have a significant positive impact on housing prices,of which per capita disposable income,total population at the end of the year,indicating that income,population and GDP are the important factors that affect the price volatility.Meanwhile,the short-term fluctuations in housing supply and sales will have a negative impact on house prices.(5)There are five types of point-by-point estimation results for the seven variables:"U","inverted U","ascending","descending" and "N";According to the different characteristics of the various elements,we can find out the inflection point which affects the price and make policy regulations in time.(6)Based on the empirical results,this paper puts forward some related policy suggestions to regulation of house prices. |
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