The Analysis Of Effect Factor Of The City Construction Bonds' Credit Spread

In recent years,under the background of the rapid expansion of China's credit bond issuance and the declining trend of GDP growth,the differentiation of the qualifications of issuers in the domestic bond market has gradually widened.Since the actual breach of the "11 Super Daily Bonds" in 2014,the total number of credit debt defaults was 111,involving 57 issuers,and the amount of breach of contract was as high as 64.985 billion yuan till 2017.However,with debt defaults now commonplace,the City Construction Bond is not polluted,and there has been no case of default.However,since the market interest rate rises since 2017,the cost of corporate debt financing has risen,financial deleveraging has intensified,bond financing regulatory policies have been pressing harder,and the state has demanded that government and corporate credit be isolated.The risk of the city construction companies cannot be ignored.Debt will break the rigid payment and increase the risk of default.In particular,after the completion of this round of the debt swap program in 2018,the city's investment bonds have no relation with the government's credit,and their credit risk has become a hot topic of discussion among academics and market investors.Therefore,it is significant to study the credit risk of city investment bonds at this point.This paper firstly analyzes the influence factors of non-issue entities and influencing factors of the main factors affecting the credit spreads of urban investment bonds,among which the non-issuer entities include macro-environmental factors,financial influencing factors and debt-influencing factors,and the issuance subjects include financial factors and entities.Credit rating factor.In this paper,we return to the two major factors and the sub-components below them.In addition,the principal component analysis method is used to reduce the dimension of the financial indicators to extract factors and return them separately.Finally,do a regression test of the full-variable model.In addition,the biggest innovation of this paper is to consider the endogenous issue of subject credit rating as a key explanatory variable,find the market share of each rating company under the province-year dimension,and the credit rating of each rating company as a tool variable.Using 2SLS and LIML model methods to verify the effectiveness of the tool variable.The conclusions of this paper are:(1)Fiscal factors have the most significant impact on the credit spreads of city investment bonds.Market investors value the government's implicit guarantee ability for urban investment bonds.In recent years,supervision has tightened and the state has imposed requirements on enterprises.In the context of isolation from government credit,the possibility of losing implicit guarantees is high.(2)The credit rating of the entity has little effect on the credit spread of city investment bonds,which is mainly due to the lack of credibility of domestic credit rating agencies.(3)The financial factors have the weakest influence on the credit spreads of city investment bonds,among which the possible reason is that the city' s financial data lacks reliability and the financial data is relatively high in water.