| In the planned economy period in our country,"Shortage" is normal in this era of products demand and supply.With the establishment of the socialist market economy system,the phenomenon of oversupply has replaced the shortage of product market in our country.The continued and intensified excess capacity has endless drawbacks,not only wastes the resources,energy and breaks the effective configuration,also can make the enterprises' behavior distortion,a large number of personnel unemployed,which are bad for the adjustment of industrial structure and long-term development of economy.Since the over-capacity arisen from late 1990s to now,the national government has given high attention and introduced a series of policies to prevent the excessive expansion of investment and excess capacity further.However,the problem of overcapacity is a chronic disease of China's industrial development,it has not got the fundamental improvement but has fallen into the "more and more serious" cycle.The investment in fixed assets of some industries in China has increased,and a large number of low-level duplication of construction and over investment have hindered the smooth implementation of industrial structure optimization and upgrading as well as the implementation of production capacity policies.In background of serious excess capacity and government trying hard to dissolve it,it has important theoretical and realistic significance to make sense why fixed assets investment,the direct cause of excess capacity can not be solved completely.This article attempts to measure 28 Chinese manufacturing industries'capacity utilization,which is the base of theoretical and empirical analysis the influence the excess capacity make on investment growth,then combined with China's economic development and social system to analyze the reasons behind this phenomenon and try to provide the corresponding policy for the government reference.Firstly,this paper measures the capacity utilization of Chinese manufacturing industries,now,there are many methods of measurement of capacity utilization methods including peak,cost function and production function method,the stochastic production frontier(SPF)and data envelopment analysis(DEA),etc.This article uses the cost function method for calculating 28 China's manufacturing industries' panel data in 2000-2015.The results show that there are seven industries have low capacity utilization rate,which mean excess capacity,and most of them are concentrated in heavy industry.The overall capacity utilization rate of China's manufacturing industry shows a change trend after rising first.There is a certain degree of consistency between the fluctuation of industrial capacity utilization and the economic cycle.On the basis of theoretical analysis of the relationship between excess capacity and the investment in fixed assets,in this paper,using the generalized difference moment estimator(GMM-DIFF)empirical analysis method to figure out the impact seven excess industries' capacity utilization have on fixed assets investment;Secondly according to the current theory of the division of sources of investment in fixed assets,analyzing the effect capacity utilization has on investment growth from three angles which are self-raised funds,domestic loans and foreign capital.The empirical results show that the existing excess capacity has significant impact only on domestic loans but not on self-raised funds and foreign capital,excess capacity has played a positive significant effect on them.At the end of the paper,analyzing the paradox of the excess capacity promoting investment growth combining current situation of system of our country,the condition of market demand and enterprise itself and providing the corresponding policy suggestions:(1)transform the mode of economic development and make the market system play a better role;(2)carry out all-round mechanism reform;(3)improve the level of innovation and implement innovation-driven development;(4)step up efforts to eliminate backward production capacity. |
PDF Full Text Request