Study Of Market Mechanism Of Manufacturing Investment And Production Capacity

The development of manufacturing industry is an important support for China's high-quality economic growth,an effective guarantee for enhancing international competitiveness,and the inevitable choice to solve the contradiction between the people's ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development.Investment and capacity allocation are the core contents of the development of the manufacturing industry.Avoiding enterprises' excessive investment and industrial overcapacity and ensuring the balance of market supply and demand are important guarantee for the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.It was decided at the Third Plenum of the 18 th CPC Central Committee that the market will play a decisive role in allocating resources and the government should better play its role,providing a new idea for the governance of overcapacity problem.How to make the market play a decisive role in the investment and capacity allocation and make the supply-side structural reform adapt for the market rules,become urgent problem.To answer the above questions,it is necessary to deeply and comprehensively analyze the market allocation mechanism of manufacturing investment and production capacity in China,which is a transition economy from planned economy to market economy and a latecomer economy with high-speed growth and undertaking the global production chain.Therefore,it is extremely important to study the market allocation mechanism of China's manufacturing investment and production capacity under the realistic background.Based on the perspective of market mechanism and combined with China's national conditions and current economic situation,the dissertation uses the mathematical proof and the empirical analysis method,comprehensive researching market allocation mechanism of investment and production capacity based on industry and enterprise data.First of all,the dissertation analyzes the micro mechanism of manufacturing investment and capacity allocated by market,and reveals the market conditions for the formation of overcapacity under the market allocation mechanism.Then,this dissertation studies the dynamic adjustment characteristics of downstream market demand for investment and capacity allocation and the capacity adjustment behavior under the transmission mechanism between upstream and downstream industries based on industrial data,exploring how the market induced the formation of the excess capacity from the industry level preliminarily.Based on the enterprise data,empirically analyze the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of the market allocation mechanism of enterprise investment and production capacity,and reveal the micro mechanism of the formation of overcapacity.Further,based on the above research,empirically test the difference of market allocation mechanism of investment and production capacity between state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises.Considering the changes of Chinese market environment after entering the new normal,introduce market shock and uncertainty into the framework of empirical analysis,expanding the research on market allocation mechanism of investment and production capacity.The above research provides theoretical reference and practical guidance for deepening supply side structural reform and solving major economic problems such as structural mismatch between social supply and demand.Main research contents and relevant conclusions are as follows:First,Based on the special development background of China's economy,this dissertation analyzes the institutional factors and market factors that affect investment and capacity allocation,and theoretically analyzes the market allocation mechanism of manufacturing industry investment and capacity,including explaining the micro mechanism of capacity excessive entry and exit rigidity under the market mechanism,and through constructing the mathematical model of investment and capacity market allocation mechanism,analyzing the manufacturers' choices of investment entry and capacity exit under various typical market conditions,revealing the reason that occurrence of overcapacity under the guidance of market signals and whether overcapacity can exit effectively under market mechanism.Based on the theoretical analysis,it is found that the rapid growth of market demand easily induces excessive capacity entry,while the specificity of capital and uncertainty of market will cause the rigidity of capacity exit.Overcapacity is a situation that can only occur when the level of capacity allocation exceeds a certain threshold and it is difficult to guide the exit of capacity under the guidance of market demand.Although market signals can induce the entry of production capacity,they can't effectively guide the exit of production capacity.The market plays an asymmetric role in the entry and exit of production capacity.The existence of this asymmetry is the cause of overcapacity under market mechanism.Secondly,in order to empirically test the market allocation mechanism of manufacturing investment and capacity,first investigate the transmission mechanism of manufacturing investment and capacity allocation between industries based on the data of industries,uses the state space model to study the dynamic induction effect of market demand on investment and capacity allocation in the steel industry and the market self-adjustment mechanism,and uses the distribution lag model to examine the transmission mechanism between the development of downstream industry and the adjustment of production capacity of iron and steel industry.The empirical results show that the market self-adjustment mechanism has limitations.When the market demand growth is large,the market mechanism does not play a role of a regulator,but to make the production capacity level deviate from the equilibrium state to a greater extent.The response of steel industry's capacity adjustment to the development of its main downstream industries is lagging,and the construction industry and special equipment manufacturing industry have the greatest impact on the steel industry's capacity adjustment behavior.Thirdly,this dissertation further empirically tests the market allocation mechanism of manufacturing investment and capacity based on micro manufacturer data.Based on the large sample annual report data of China's manufacturing listed companies,this paper designs market signal indicators that reflect market demand and price,constructs investment model and capacity model and empirically analyzes the effect of market on investment and capacity.It is found that,the investment entry induced by expansionary market signal is a common phenomenon,but the induced effect of high expansionary market signal on enterprise investment and capacity allocation is significantly enhanced.The induced effect of low expansionary market signal and high expansionary market signal on investment entry and capacity formation is significantly nonlinear.The induced mechanism of market in declining period on capacity exit is lack of effectiveness,which is characterized by significant rigidity.The effect of market signals on capacity entry and exit is characterized by significant asymmetry.If there is a lack of focused policy,along with the sharp fluctuation of economic operation,that the effectiveness of market transmission mechanism for investment entry and capacity formation induction and the failure of adjustment for excess capacity exit will lead to frequent overcapacity and difficult to achieve fundamental governance.Fourth,On the basis of the empirical research on the market mechanism of manufacturing investment and capacity allocation,this dissertation explores the difference of market allocation mechanism of manufacturing enterprise investment and capacity with different ownership.In this dissertation,enterprises are divided into state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises according to the ownership of enterprises.Make a contrastive study of the response of investment and capacity allocation of state-owned and non-state-owned industrial enterprises to market signal in expansion period and decline period,the effect of budget constraints on the response of investment and capacity allocation of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises to the market signals,and test the effectiveness of market signal for guiding the capacity entry and capacity exit of state-owned and non-state-owned industrial enterprises in different periods.It is found that the investment behavior of state-owned enterprises not only follows the market mechanism,but also has stronger sensitivity to market signals in expansion period compared with non-state-owned industrial enterprises.And compared with non-state-owned enterprises,state-owned enterprises have stronger rigidity of capacity exit.The soft budget constraint enlarges the induction effect of market signals in expansion period on capacity entry of state-owned enterprises,but does not significantly affect the exit rigidity of state-owned enterprises.Before 2013,state-owned enterprises tended to respond to market demand signals,while non-state-owned enterprises tended to respond to market price signals.After 2013,the response of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned investment behavior to market demand and price signals is significant,and the sensitivity of state-owned enterprises to market response is stronger than that of non-state-owned enterprises.Fifth,further considering the increasing of downward pressure of global economy and the complexity of market environment at home and abroad,the market shock and market uncertainty are introduced in the empirical analysis framework of market allocation mechanism,and the research on market allocation mechanism of manufacturing investment and capacity is expanded.This dissertation constructs the duration of market shock and market uncertainty variables based on the operation indicators of listed companies,and empirically tests the impact of market demand and market uncertainty on the fixed asset investment behavior and capacity adjustment behavior under different duration of market shock.It is found that when the negative demand shock lasts for a long time,the change of market demand has a significant impact on the investment decision-making of the enterprise,but not on the capacity adjustment decision-making of the enterprise.It means the market demand shock only affects the plan of the enterprise for the future capacity allocation,but the current capacity of the enterprise will not be adjusted according to the change of the current market demand shock.The effect of market uncertainty on enterprise investment and capacity adjustment is affected by the duration of market demand shock.When the duration of market demand shock is longer,the market uncertainty has a significant weakening effect on the investment and capacity adjustment of enterprises.