| By the end of 2017,the value of China's broad money supply has reached nearly167.7 trillion yuan,and China has become the largest international monetary power with surpassing that of the United States and Japan.Although now the speed of our country's economic growth has gradually slowed,The yuan could depreciate,but the broad money supply remains continuing to grow,the ratio of M2 and GDP has reached more than200%,economic monetization phenomenon is serious,and the price level in our country has been at the low level,at the same time,the real estate market prices are also rising rapidly,every square meter is only 2063 yuan in 1998,but now it has up to 7892 yuan in2017,the national commercial housing sales have up to 13.3701 trillion yuan in 2017.And most of the real estate participants will need financial support,financing from Banks and other financial institutions is required at this time,the development of the real estate industry cannot be separated from the support of financial institutions.The changes in the quantity of money supply directly affect the flow of funds in the real estate industry,thus indirectly affecting the housing price.so in this context,research the impact of the money supply on housing prices is conducive to the smooth and orderly development of the real estate market.This paper studies the influence of money supply on real estate prices in China by combining literature research and theoretical analysis with empirical analysis.First reviewed the domestic and foreign scholars on the issue of the research,then expounds the theoretical basis of this article,including the theory of money supply and monetary transmission mechanism,Based on the transmission mechanism of money supply,the mechanism of the effect of money supply on real estate price is clarified,including interest rates,credit way,asset combination way,inflation and exchange rate.Then this paper describes the present situation of the money supply and real estate market in China,then points out the reasons of China's currency overissue and discover the existence of the real estate market in China including high prices,high vacancy rates and potential financial risks.In the past the span of selected sample range and moneysupply indicators are different,because China conducted real estate marketization reform in July 1998,this article taken from July 1998 to December 2017 in the quarterly data,Using quasi currency and broad money with commercial housing sales price respectively build a vector autoregressive(VAR)model with adopt the disposable income of urban residents,the development of real estate investment and gross domestic product(GDP)as control variables by means of correlation analysis,Johanson cointegration test,impulse response analysis,etc,it is concluded that money supply and real estate price have a long-term stable equilibrium relationship,the money supply on real estate prices has a positive promoting role,and there is a quarter lag,Compared with the quasi currency,the impact of broad money supply on real estate prices is more significant,Finally based on the conclusion of empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions to improve China's real estate market and promote its healthy development,it includes strengthening the regulation of monetary policy,improving the decision-making of real estate credit,taking the initiative to guard against financial risks and widening the channel of capital investment.The innovation of this paper mainly lies in two aspects: first,a relatively new research perspective.Most of the previous literatures only studied the influence direction of money supply on real estate price,and less considered the influence time delay.In this paper,we select the broad money quantity and the quasi-money as the indicator of money supply,study their influence on the real estate price,and discuss the effect time delay.Secondly,The improvement of the empirical analysis method.In this paper,the vector autoregressive model is established to discuss the problem.Before the empirical analysis,the necessary processing of the data is done.After the modeling,the stability of the model is tested in time,and the impulse response function and variance analysis are used to reflect the research problems as carefully as possible. |
