| The purpose of the change of money supply in China is to make the consumer price index change.With the release of central bank liquidity,the change of CPI is less,but the change of house price is larger.Does this mean that there is an unbalanced effect between real estate and other industries?In view of this,this paper reviews and inquires about the countries related to money supply,house price and consumer price index.On the basis of domestic and foreign literature,this paper analyses the relationship between money supply,house price and consumer price index.Firstly,it makes theoretical analysis from the following three aspects:first,it uses IS-LM model theory to analyze the influence of money supply on consumer price index;second,Keynesian investment theory to analyze the influence of money supply on house price;third,it uses industrial economics.Relevant theories about the influence of the change of house price on consumer price index.Secondly,the ADL model is established for empirical analysis,and the following three equations are obtained through the variables of money supply growth rate,real estate price index and consumer price index.Firstly,the influence of money supply on consumer price index should be eliminated;secondly,the influence of money supply on real estate price index should be eliminated;lastly,the influence of money supply on real estate price index should be eliminated.The impact of real estate price index on CPI;Through theoretical and empirical analysis,it is concluded that the effect of the change of money supply on house price and consumer price index is unbalanced in the short run.What we mean here is not the short term in economics,but the specific half year or even one year.That is to say,the impact on house price and consumer price index is different because of the special price of house,changes in house prices also have a certain impact on consumer price index.Therefore,two conclusions can be drawn:first,the direct effect of money supply on house price and consumer price index is inconsistent,the change of house price is greater than that of consumer price index,and the reaction time for house price is shorter,that is,house price reflects faster and more effective than consumer price index;second,goods.The influence of money supply on house price is far greater than the sum of money supply on consumer price index and house price on consumer price index.Of course,with the development of time,the lagging effect of money supply will eventually reach equilibrium,but there will still be omissions.That is to say,the influence of money supply on house price is housing.There are two possibilities:on the one hand,China's housing prices may affect the development of other countries,or other countries'relevant policies will restrict the transmission of China's housing prices to the consumer price index.On the other hand,because of liquidity,part of the impact of money supply on housing prices has been precipitated,and has not been transmitted to the consumer price index. |
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