The Research On The Influence Of Financial Services On The Earnings And Risk Of China's Commercial Banks In The Post-financial Crisis

After the financial crisis in 2008,the world entered the "post-financial crisis era." The continued weakness of the economy,the intensification of inflationary pressures,and the historically low level of real interest rates have caused people to transfer their deposits out of commercial banks to avoid shrinking wealth.This directly led to the continuous loss of deposits in commercial banks.In January 2012 alone,RMB deposits were significantly reduced by 800 billion yuan.With the reduction of deposits and the tightening of pro-cyclical supervision,commercial banks are forced to carry out financial innovation and business transformation.The wealth management products are highly favored by investors due to their low risk of high returns.They can also help commercial banks to “buy and save” and prosper their intermediate businesses.Therefore,most of the bank's lost deposits are transformed into bank wealth management products.From 2011 to 2015,the annual compound growth rate of China's bank financial management scale exceeded 50%.At the end of2016,the balance of wealth management products of commercial banks reached nearly 30 trillion yuan,and the wealth management market in China ushered in a good time.However,behind the rapid growth of wealth management services and the rise of the scale of the wealth management business,there are frequent chaos and huge financial risks.In 2008,the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's zero-income case of wealth management products,the 2017 annual falsification of China Minsheng Bank's financial products,and at the end of year,Qian Baowang was suspected of a Ponzi scheme,etc,frequently pushed the wealth management market to the forefront of the financial market,causing people to face the financial market.The lack of trust,and even market panic,led to a rise in the bank's financial risk index.It is against this background that in order to clarify the impact of wealth management on commercial banks in order to fully realize the advantages of wealth management services,and to avoid risks in the wealth management market,it is possible to develop and prosper wealth management services while maintaining the stability of the capital market.To promote the prosperity of China's market economy,this paper first uses qualitative analysis to study the connotation of wealth management services,and reveals the essential attributes of wealth management services from four perspectives: financial innovation,financial disintermediation,interest rate marketization,and “shadow banking”.Next,from the perspective of theory,this paper analyzes the impact of wealth management business on the revenue of commercial banks from the perspectives of fund source and application,business structure,regulatory policy,and interest rate marketization,and from credit risk,liquidity risk,market risk and systemic risk.Perspective analysis of the impact of wealth management business on commercial bank risk.Secondly,using quantitative analysis method and using Stata software,this paper constructs profit model(ROA model),risk model(Z model),and risk-benefit comprehensive model(SHARP model)of financial business impact on commercial banks.Through a combination of theoretical and empirical methods,this study mainly concludes that in China,wealth management services have a significant positive impact on commercial bank earnings and risks and banks' risk-adjusted returns.That is,wealth management services will improve business.The profitability and competitiveness of banks will also increase the risks of commercial banks and exacerbate the instability of the financial system and the turmoil in the capital market.Based on this,in the end,this article puts forward specific measures for the development of commercial banks' wealth management business,increasing revenues and preventing financial services business risks,so as to better promote a healthy and orderly development of the financial market.