Research On Systemic Risk Of Hog Price Index Insurance In China

Perfecting the price formation mechanism of agricultural products and allowing the market to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources is the key to the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture in China.Pork is one of the most important meats in the "vegetable basket" for urban and rural residents.Its price fluctuation has a very significant demonstration effect on the total level of market price of livestock products in China.However,at the present stage,the system of hog industry chain in China is relatively fragile,and its ability to resist risks is limited.The cyclical fluctuation of live hog market price is very obvious and the fluctuation range is large.The dramatic change of live hog market price "roller coaster" not only damages the interests of hog farmers,It also brings great challenges to the smooth operation of the market price mechanism of agricultural products in our country.The insurance of live hog price index is an effective way to guard against the risk of market price of live hogs and to ensure the basic income of hog farmers.It can stabilize the market price of live hogs to a certain extent,and avoid or alleviate the "hog injury to farmers," For four consecutive years,the "No.1 document" of the Central Committee has issued important instructions on the target price insurance for agricultural products,including the insurance of the live hog price index.It can be predicted that hog price index insurance may become an important means of regulating the hog market in China for some time in the future.However,in the practice of the pilot project,the hog price index insurance has exposed some problems.There is a systemic risk in hog price index insurance based on "hog grain ratio" as the main standard of payment.Once the market price of live hog fluctuates,the insurance company carrying out this insurance is prone to overpayment.It is of great practical significance to study the systemic risk of hog price index insurance in order to stabilize the market price of live hogs and ensure the basic income of hog farmers.Firstly,this study lays a theoretical foundation for the whole paper by combing the research ideas and methods of domestic and foreign scholars on the regulation of hog market price fluctuation,hog price insurance and systemic risk.The amount of insurance,the premium rate,the proportion of government subsidies,the premium paid by hog farmers,and so on,are systematically analyzed in the practice of the main pilot areas of hog price index insurance in China.And through the "correlation coefficient" as a mathematical index to reveal the emergence stage of hog price index insurance there is a certain systemic risk problem.Thirdly,based on the insurable risk theory,this paper analyzes the insured object of live hog price index insurance.On this basis,a time series decomposition model is constructed to study the deep causes of systemic risk in hog price index insurance.By comparing and analyzing the changes of hog grain ratiobefore and after eliminating cyclical factors and trend factors,it is concluded that the insurance of live hog price index is difficult to effectively disperse the market price risk in space.Finally,in line with "risk control," The "easy to implement" principle,from both the short and long term dimensions,on how to prevent systemic risk,To perfect the product system of hog price index insurance in China,the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.The conclusion of this study is as follows: the hog price index insurance with "hog grain ratio" as the main indemnity index,It is difficult to disperse the risk of market price fluctuation in space,the cyclical factor and trend factor in the market price of live hog is one of the main causes of systemic risk of hog price index insurance.The price discovery function of futures market can effectively guard against systemic risk,but the hog futures market in our country has not been completely established.The development of hog price index insurance should be gradual and orderly,so the pilot range should not be expanded hastily.