Analysis Of Potato Price Fluctuation In China

Potato is important to ensure food safety,increase income,shake off poverty and revitalize the regional economy in China.Potato industry is in a rapid development in recent years,but the contradiction between its production and market has become increasingly serious and the fluctuation of its price is more remarkably,which not only damages the interests of potato growers,but goes against the healthy and stable development of potato market and industry.To analyze the spatial-temporal differences of potato price fluctuation,explore the main influencing factors of it,and make a forecast of potato price has important significance in stabilizing potato production and market,increasing farmers' income and prospering potato industry.Based on the thorough analysis of current situation of potato supply and demand,the characteristics and main causes of its price fluctuation,under the closed condition without regard to the import and export of potato,the paper selected the influencing factors from the angle of supply and demand of potato price in quantitative expression.The principal component regression,VAR model and symbol regression were used to explore the main factors affecting the price fluctuation of potato afterwards.Then the analysis results of the three methods were compared and analyzed.With the highest fitting precision,the symbol regression equation was used as the price forecasting model to forecast the price of potato in 2016 to 2025 by trend extrapolation.Suggestions to stabilize the price of potatoes were put forward in the end.The main progress and conclusions are as follows.(1)The spatial and temporal characteristics of potato price in China were preliminarily clarified.Over the long run,the potato price from 2009 to 2016 was rising overall,and in an increasing-declining-steady circle every three years.Over the short run,the average price in four quarters of a year declined in turn,as well as its fluctuation degree.The average price between districts fell from the south to the north.(2)The main influencing factors of potato price fluctuation were analyzed quantitatively.The principal component regression result showed that,potato price fluctuation was mainly affected by the consumption side factors.The VAR model result showed that,potato price fluctuation was mainly affected by the production side factors.The symbol regression result showed that,potato price fluctuation was mainly affected by the consumption side and production side factors.Therefore,potato price fluctuation was the comprehensive result of various factors,including production cost,the last period price,the price of production substitutes,consumption substitutes,economic development level and so on.The case study of Tengzhou potato market further indicated that the price of potatoes was mainly influenced by the price of vegetables and the relation between supply and demand.(3)The price prediction model of Chinese potato was preliminarily constructed.The fitting precision of the four equations,symbol regression equation,stepwise regression equation,VAR model equation and principal component regression equation,was from high to low.With the highest fitting precision,the symbol regression equation was used as the price forecasting model to forecast the price of potato in 2016 to 2025 by trend extrapolation.Results showed,the actual price of potato in China will stabilize in the fluctuation in 2016-2025,and nominal price will increase slightly in fluctuation.And the forecast error of 2016 was within 10%.Potato price are actually affected by many uncertainty factors such as climate,pest,society and policy.(4)The countermeasures of potato price fluctuation in China were put forward.Five suggestions have put forward in the end such as adjust potato planting structure,strengthen information service,reduce costs,improve quality increase efficiency,promote scientific storage and enhance the organization degree of potato in the end to stable potato price and promote healthy development of potato industry.