Research On Chongqing Foreign Trade Potentialities

Since the financial crisis,the global economic structure has undergone complicated and profound changes,the old capitalist power has fallen into the mire of development and the global demand is not vibrant.All countries rely on the transformation of the industrial structure and the way of balancing domestic demand to find the way to redrive the economic development,and adjust the policy of external opening and release and strengthen the monitoring of financial risk.Revive trade protectionism.With the development of China's economic development into a "new normal",the upgrading of industrial structure has become an imminent problem.However,the problem of foreign investment mitigation and labor appreciation has plagued the development of China's manufacturing industry.As one of the main driving forces of economic growth,foreign trade is also facing the danger of "flameout".In order to adapt to the change of new pattern and the goal of economic construction,a series of new open policies have come into being.In the new period,Chongqing actively integrate into the national Belt and Road Initiative "strategy,using its own industrial base advantages,to undertake the eastern industrial transfer,to create an open port,international logistics corridor construction,and actively improve the relevant supporting measures,the rapid development of foreign trade,but also exposed to more serious problems.After two consecutive years of negative growth,Chongqing's foreign trade is still weak and the industrial structure is difficult to transform.Compared with the eastern region,foreign trade is still weak,the contribution to economic growth is not high,and even the "top" Harbinger appears.What is the potential of Chongqing's foreign trade and whether it can promote the sustainable development of the economy? What are the factors that obstruct the development of trade.How should we eliminate the obstacles and find the market,improve the economic efficiency of the region and push the "Chongqing manufacturing" to a new step with the help of foreign trade? Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade inefficient model,we have answered the above questions by estimating the panel data of total trade volume and trade mode in recent ten years.The trade potential of Chongqing and 50 main foreign trade countries and regions is measured,providing data support for trade prospects.The influencing factors of trade barriers are decomposed,which provides policy basis for policy theory.This article is divided into seven chapters.The first chapter is introduction,introducing the background,literature review,research methods and innovation.The second chapter is about the related concepts and theoretical basis,and introduces the definition,structure and measurement of trade potential and related theories of international trade.The third chapter analyzes and points out the problems of Chongqing's foreign trade by means of foreign trade data and statistical methods.The fourth chapter builds the empirical analysis model based on previous studies,and introduces the theory of models,variables selection,data sources and testing methods.The fifth chapter makes an empirical study on the factors affecting bilateral trade,export trade and import trade,the influencing factors and trade potential of Chongqing's bilateral trade,export trade and import trade from 2006 to 2015,based on the perspective of total trade.The sixth chapter makes an empirical study on the factors affecting the processing trade and general trade from 2007 to 2012 of Chongqing,the influencing factors of trade barriers and the potential of trade based on the perspective of trade.The seventh chapter summarizes the research conclusions and puts forward relevant policy recommendations for Chongqing's foreign trade industry based on the research results.The empirical results show that neither the total trade volume nor the trade level of Chongqing has reached the "frontier" level,and the foreign trade still has much room for improvement.Judging from the factors that influence the potential of trade,the traditional gravity model still has good explanatory power,and all variables are in line with the theoretical assumptions.In terms of the factors that affect the inefficiency of trade,the LR test shows that only 5 variables,such as bordering,free trade area agreement,class ship joint transport index,monetary freedom degree and financial freedom degree,are more significant in bilateral trade samples,but other variables are also in the sample of import and export and trade mode.There is a significant state.According to the effect of the model construction,the stochastic frontier gravitational model has a good explanatory power for each of the explanatory variables,but the explanatory power of the import trade model is general.In terms of market selection,the countries and regions with larger volume of real trade have great trade potential,but the countries with low trade expansion space,low trade efficiency but good economic development have the most potential.Therefore,we should further optimize the flow of foreign trade,guided by the development of trade potential.Building a multi-channel communication platform and dialogue mechanism;Actively guide the transformation and upgrading of processing trade;Build a high-quality foreign trade industrial structure on the basis of expanding opening to the outside world.Measures such as changing trade development mode and improving enterprises' independent innovation ability are worthy of sustainable development of chongqing's foreign trade.