Research On Fund Investment Based On Economic Cycle

Since the reform and opening up,with the gradual increase of national income and the efficient allocation of assets at the same time,it has become a topic of concern.The periodic fluctuation of the economy leads to the problem of how to choose the standard of investment.As early as 2004,the Merrill Lynch investors in the US used nearly 30 years' data to reveal an investment cycle model Merrill Lynch Investment clock.The Merrill Lynch Investment clock model effectively reveals how to make investment decisions' under different economic cycles.However,the investment environment of our country is quite different from the investment environment in the United States,and our country is more active in the regulation of the market.The increasing prosperity of the financial market in our country makes the investment field and the investment variety of the investors diversify day by day.Large institutional investors,such as banks,securities companies,funds and trusts,all consider the optimization of asset allocation and its adaptability to the economic development situation as an important consideration for its own development.How to grasp macroeconomic fluctuations,improve the rationality of asset allocation and get profits from it has gradually become an important issue for investment institutions and investors to consider.Therefore,based on the investment clock theory of Merrill Lynch Securities,this paper tries to get the investment clock suitable for the market in China to guide the investors to carry out the asset allocation in the different economic cycle environment.This article is divided into six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,which introduces the research status of scholars at home and abroad,and explains the important theoretical and practical significance of asset allocation based on the economic cycle.Then,we reviewed the domestic and foreign literature related to the research contents,including domestic and foreign literature on the definition of economic cycle and the division of economic cycle.The second chapter introduces the theory of economic cycle related and Merrill's clock theory as the research means to understand the research contributions of the past experts and scholars in the economic cycle and fund investment and to carry out my research direction.The third chapter divides the economic cycle of our country by using the model of Merrill Lynch Investment clock,which is divided into four complete cycles,each cycle has four cycles of recovery period,overheating period,stagflation period and recession period,and makes an analysis of the economic situation in the four cycles to lay the foundation for the next chapter of investment simulation..The fourth chapter uses the Merrill Lynch Investment calculator and the common investment calculator in the third chapters to select the corresponding investment fund to carry out a simulated investment analysis,and get the result of the investment analysis.The fifth chapter analyzes the investment problems or difficulties that may arise in different periods of our country through the analysis of the differences in the rate of return on investment.The sixth chapter puts forward corresponding suggestions for fund investment based on the results of investment and China's cycle.After the correlation analysis,it is found that the investment model of our country is roughly consistent with the traditional Merrill Lynch Investment Model,which proves that Merrill Lynch Investment model can be used in the market of our country,but there is a small part of the investment performance in the period of the Merrill Lynch Investment Model.After analyzing the reasons,the main reason is that the investment environment in our country is different from the US investment environment.The change of the market to the economic cycle may not be as timely as the American market,and the regulation of the market is different from the national policy orientation,which may result in the investment by human intervention.The direction changes.But generally speaking,Merrill Lynch Investment mode can be applied to China's investment market and put forward suggestions for fund investment mode based on economic cycle.