Research And Construction Of The New Framework Of Merrill Lynch Clock In China

In November 2004,Merrill Lynch released a study entitled Investment Clock,profit from macroeconomic research,in which Merrill Lynch presented the famous Merrill Lynch clock theory in its report.Focusing on the US market from July 1969 to August 2003 for nearly 35 years,the study divided 4-6 economic cycles by combining the output gap with the two index of the inflation index,each of which can be subdivided into four stages: the recovery period,the overheating period,the stagnating period and the recession period.The report concluded that different assets should be allocated at different stages of the economy,which in order to achieve excess returns by validating the four types of assets on the market,such as bonds,commodities,cash,and equities.The report,released by Merrill Lynch,provides a model for market investors with a more complete and rigorous demonstration approach and is great guiding importance to market participants by identifying economic cycles,configuring the corresponding large categories of assets,and achieving a level of income that goes beyond the broad market.Based on the idea of Merrill Lynch investment Clock demonstration,this paper selects the first index and the lag index of the National Bureau of Statistics as the twodimensional data to divide the Chinese economic cycle,divides the economic situation from 2000 to 2017,and by verifying the yield of the four types of assets in different stages of the economic cycle,It is found that there is only one class of assets and the original conclusion in the practical diagonal,and then the variance analysis shows that there is no statistically significant difference in the rate of return of the economic cycle according to the Merrill Lynch clock at each stage.Empirical tests show that Merrill's clock failed became a "bad bell" in China.This paper complements the original assets by adding assets such as real estate,improves the classification of the assets by Merrill Lynch Clock,and confirms the rationality of optimizing the large class assets of Merrill Lynch clock through the relevant data of the Chinese market from 2000 to 2017 for a total of 17 years,and finds a better rotation law of large class assets.By perfecting the "localization" of Merrill Lynch Clock,this paper not only gives institutional investors the judgment and choice of research direction,but also gives some suggestions and guidance to the asset allocation of many ordinary investors,which makes it possible to pursue the maximization of return on investment while the risk is being controlled.