Empirical Study On The Threshold Effect Of Monetary Policy In China

Monetary policy is one of the important means of macroeconomic regulation and control in our country.The central bank uses various monetary policy tools to adjust the money supply,interest rate and exchange rate in the Macro economy so as to achieve economic growth,stable prices,balance of payments,and full employment Policy goals.The effective implementation of monetary policy helps to promote China's economic restructuring and upgrading.After the 2008 financial crisis,all countries in the world continued to make theoretical exploration and practical exploration on monetary theory.Keynesian anti-cyclical total demand management thought returned to its conclusion.All major economies formed the consensus of macro-prudential management.As the largest economy in transition in the world,China's central bank should not only control inflation when formulating monetary policy,but also take into consideration the major features of China's economic restructuring and the need for financial reform.Due to the complicated economic constraints and structural features in our country,when implementing the monetary policy,the central bank must comprehensively consider the reality of China's macroeconomic regulation and control,innovate the monetary policy tools,increase the construction of financial market infrastructure and increase the interest rate sensitivity of investment,The effective play provides good conditions.In this paper,a combination of theoretical and empirical research methods were studied in two aspects.The main theoretical aspects of monetary policy,credit rationing on the basis of predecessors to learn the relevant theories of systematic combing and research.The effective use of monetary policy relies on the smooth flow of monetary policy.Therefore,the paper first elaborates on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.According to the current economic and financial development of our country and previous studies,it is concluded that the main channel of monetary policy in our country is credit Based on China's basic national conditions,our country has taken a limited open and managed floating exchange rate policy of capital account,and the exchange rate channel can not yet be an effective channel of conduction.Second,credit rationing hastaken place Mainly because of asymmetric information in financial markets.Commercial banks,due to adverse selection and moral hazard considerations,can use the pricing mechanism and other constraints on the financing enterprises to complete the disposition of credit funds when screening the information of the financing enterprises.Credit rationing Existence has caused the commercial bank to deviate from the target of the central bank when implementing the monetary policy of the central bank,resulting in the non-symmetrical effect of the implementation of the monetary policy in different stages of economic development.Finally,the threshold effect of the monetary policy is expounded It is because of the effect of the implementation of monetary policy asymmetry,resulting in monetary policy and economic output is nonlinear relationship,leading to the emergence threshold.Empirically,this paper uses the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2016 to do some empirical research on the theory.Based on the data of GDP,M2,fiscal expenditure,financial development and price level,we use Eviews 8.0econometric software to perform impulse response and variance decomposition on output to get the tightening currency Policy and expansive monetary policy are inconsistent with the contribution rate of output,the implementation effect of the tightening monetary policy is about four times that of the expansionary policy,which proves the non-linear relationship between the implementation effect of monetary policy.Second,The threshold of the amount of money was estimated,the measurement of the money supply in 2004(the logarithmic difference of money supply)threshold is 0.01845,2007,2011,2013 threshold were 0.02861,0.01689,0.02682,2003 to 2007,as the economy rose,the money supply continued to expand.Due to the development of financial markets in 2004,the monetary policy threshold in 2004 was low,the credit rationing was severe,and the impact threshold of the financial crisis in 2011 dropped.Since 2013,the threshold value rose to 0.028,mitigated the credit rationing,and combined with the non-performing loan ratio that reflects the asymmetric information of our country to a certain extent A step-by-step verification of the corresponding period of credit rationing and threshold size.