The Impact Of The Chinese Basic Old-age Insurance System For Urban Workers To The Consumption Level Of Urban Residents

Under the new Economic development normal,as the consumption of residents continues to increase,its basic role in economic development is also becoming more prominent.Consumption has surpassed investment and net exports became the most important driving force for the growth of the national economy for three consecutive years.In the Party's Nineteenth National Congress report,it also clearly stated that we must continue to strengthen the unshakable basic role of consumption in economic development.Despite this,there are still deficiencies in China's consumption situation compared with other developed countries.On the one hand,the final consumption rate of residents significantly lower than the developed countries,for example,in 2015 the final consumption rate of residents of the United States is 68.1%,while China is 37.14%,only about half of America! On the other hand,in 2016,the national urban residents per capita consumption is 23078.9 yuan,but specific to each province,found that there is a big gap in 31 provinces.Only a few provinces,such as Shanghai,Beijing,zhejiang and guangdong,have reached the level of per-capita consumption of urban residents.In the face of the situation of insufficient consumer development,how to stimulate consumer spending,is a problem to be solved.Among the numerous factors influencing residents' consumption,income is a very key factor.The basic old-age insurance system for urban workers as the main content of the social security system,it will enable insured residents to receive a pension after retirement.On the one hand,it can increase the per capita disposable income of retired residents and reduce the income gap between retired residents and working residents.On the other hand,it can also reduce the savings made by working residents in order to cope with future uncertainties and stimulate consumption from multiple angles.So It is of great significance to study the effect of basic old-age insurance for urban workers on the consumption of residents,to stimulate the consumption of residents,to improve the pension insurance mechanism and to promote the healthy development of the economy.Based on absolute income hypothesis,relative income hypothesis and life cycle theory,theory of precautionary saving and other consumption function theory,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of basic old-age insurance system for urban workers on residents' consumption.In addition,a consumption model has been established between the coverage and replacement rates of basic pension insurance for urban workers and urban residents' consumption levels.Then,according to the established model,Eviews7.2 software was used.The co-integration and error correction model were analyzed for the time series data from 1990 to 2016.The analysis result shows that the coverage of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers has a significant positive influence on the urban residents consumption level,and the corresponding coefficient is 0.4940.The replacement rate of basic old-age insurance for employees does not have a significant effect on the level of household consumption.The corresponding coefficient of influence is only 0.0642.Through further analysis of the impact of urban employees' basic pension insurance on the level of household consumption,it is found that the coefficient of influence of the coverage of basic old-age insurance on the residents' consumption ability is 2.0516,and the coefficient of influence on the residents' willingness to consume is 0.6333;the replacement rate of basic pension insurance for workers The coefficient of influence on residents' spending power is-1.9802,and the coefficient of influence on residents' willingness to consume is 0.4694.According to the comparison of impact coefficients,it is analyzed that the basic endowment insurance for urban employees mainly influences the level of household consumption by affecting the residents' consumption ability.At the end of the article,the author puts forward some suggestions to improve the pension system based on the relevant conclusions.