Research On The Influence Of Main Business On Financial Warning Model Of Manufacture Enterprise

With the increasing number of listed companies in the capital market,shareholders,creditors and other investors have noticed company's quality.It is an urgent need of the capital market and enterprise to evaluate financial status reasonably and correctly.Enterprise always face serious financial problems;main business's deterioration makes enterprise huge losses.The research on main business focuses on the diversified operation,surplus structure's impact on earnings quality.But there are few researches on the financial condition of enterprises based on the main business perspective.This paper analyzes the impact of main business on the financial warning model.This paper takes manufacturing as the research object,we analysis industry characteristics from the number of listed companies in various industries,average total assets,average operating income and average total profit,found the differences between industries were obvious.Analyze main business characteristics,the main business profit margin is low,when analyze profit structure,the main business contribution is low,the investment income and the operating external balance ratio is higher.Manufacturing companies is obvious different and numerous,so we can construct a useful financial warning model.We try to define the concept of financial crisis,if operating margin and operating income growth rate are negative,enterprises are financial crisis.This method has a good distinguishing ability by doing statistical analysis.Previous studies focus on ST samples(including*ST)and non-ST samples,ST samples always appear serious problem,Financial warning model is mainly to prevent financial crisis,a year of losses in a business can indicate a business problem,if the growth rate of operating income is negative,then confirm this issue.We select 7 main business ratios and 17 financial ratios,after significance test,we get 17 ratios,however the financial ratios are linked,we use factor analysis to get the main factor to prevent the loss of financial information,use common factor to build a financial warning model based Logistic method respectively.Empirical results show that the model based on main business ratio could identify the financial status correctly,the model based on all ratios has a better predictive ability,it indicates the control variables provide less additional information.Comparing the coefficients in each period,main business profitability is the most important ratios,the growth ability performs well in one-year forecast,debt service ratios is important in long-term forecasting.At the same time,we build another Logistic model,found the result confirm the conclusion above.It can provide ideas for building a financial warning model.