| With the increasing competition and the changing economic environment, companies will have to face high-risk. Since 2008, the U.S. sub-prime crisis had penetrated from the virtual economy to the real economy through international trade and affected the whole world, more and more domestic and foreign enterprises fell into financial crisis. Especially for the manufacturing industry, which is the foundation of the national economy and the main part of the industry. Many manufacturing listed companies can not work as usual,even fail to the financial crisis. Therefore, it is quitely necessary to establish the financial crisis early warning system which meet the manufacturing enterprise features,to identify failing companies as early as possible. It is clearly a mater of considerable interest to manager investors,creditors,auditors and the supervisor.Though there has been much research on the financial early-warning at home and abroad, the financial crisis early-warning measures of risk by the nature. As we all know,risk is always accompanied by benefit, and co-exist in any economic field. Therefore, how to build a high-precision early-warning model has been a research hotspot and difficult at home and abroad; At the same time, due to the different study samples, different research period, different research perspectives, the accuracy of early warning models will be different. So the financial crisis early-warning should be suitable for the local conditions and the particular time.For this reason, using the latest data, this thesis makes a thorough inquiry on the financial crisis early warning, taking Chinaese manufacturing listed companies's characteristics into consideration, on the basis of drawing lessons from the research results of this field. First, this paper reviews the research results both in China and in abroad in this area, and then summarizes the definition of the crisis, the variable selection, researching techniques, to find the pros and cons and make the choice; Secondly, most scholars make their study from the perspective of the traditional indicators, cash indicators, governance indicators, while the indicators of the main operational capacity are insufficient. It is lack of the studies on the relationship between the financial crisis and core competencies. In the current,the "Go Nuclear," strategy and the core competence theory are increasingly prosperous, and the level of the main business of the manufacturing industry is low and shrinking, this paper cut into the perspective of the core competence and use Logistic model to make an empirical test of the relationship between the two. Furthermore, foreign scholars mainly studied it from the non-equilibrium theory, the financial model theory, principal-agent theory, all of which are lack of practical guidance for early warning indicators. This paper studies it from the "Refocusing" strategic departure and the Core-Competence theory, builds the corresponding indicators from the Core (Main) competency-based approach for early warning, effectively bridging the theoretical analysis and micro variables choice. Finally, scholars during the past believed that insolvency or lack of cash flow had led to the financial crisis, while this article studies it both from the direct and underlying causes, then uses Logistic regression to construct the traditional model, the main model, integrated model for empirical testing.The results show that: China's manufacturing industry's main operational capacity (including its main business profitability,growbility,and main business profit ratio) of the listed company is negative with financial crisis; main business capability is the fundamental factor that leading to the financial crisis in its early stage and has a higher accuracy rate than the traditional model; the index early-warning model has a very high accuracy. According to this study, this paper then presented the corresponding recommendations,summarized the shortcomings of the full text and looked forward to the follow-up study. |
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