Research On The East Asian Experience Of Avoiding The Middle

China's economy has experienced miraculous growth in the past 40 years.At present,the per-capital GDP has exceeded US $8000 and entered the stage of middle and high income.But problems such as slowing economic growth,irrational industrial structure and the disappearance of demographic dividends in recent years have exposed China to the risk of falling into the middle-income trap.China is located in East Asia and has similar national trade environment and development process with East Asian countries.It is of great practical significance to study the middle-income trap in East Asia for China to avoid the middle-income trap.From the point of view of micro-products,this paper studies the problem of middle-income trap in East Asian countries by using the theory of product space.Through the theory of product space,it explains the reason of falling into the middle-income trap,that is,one country cannot support the industrial upgrading jump because of its own lack of initial ability,thus falling into the middle-income trap.By using the transfer probability matrix,this paper analyzes the evolution of comparative advantage of countries with different income groups in the middle income stage,so as to analyze the differences of industrial upgrading among different income groups.At the same time,it analyzes the risk of the evolution of comparative advantage in China at the present stage,that is,industrial upgrading.Using 765 export data classified by SITC four-digit codes from 1966 to 2015 in the United Nations Trade Database,this paper empirically tests and compares the leapfrogging paths between the straddle group and the fall group,which provides suggestions for China to choose the upgrade path in the future.The results show that the path of upgrading of countries in straddle group is a leapfrogging upgrade that deviates from the existing resources,while the upgrading process of countries in fall group is a gradual upgrading path that follows the natural endowment of resources.The path of industrial upgrading in China at the present stage is similar to that of countries in fall group.To avoid the middle-income trap,we must complete the accumulation of innovation capabilities through our own study and imitation of advanced countries and realize the leapfrog upgrade that deviates from the original resource endowment through innovative products.