An Empirical Study Based On Chinese Macroeconomic Data

At present,the Chinese economy has entered a new normal state of growth shifts,structural adjustments,and kinetic energy conversions.At the same time,the problem of the sudden increase in the macroeconomic leverage ratio and the increase in the debt burden has become more prominent.Against this backdrop,the Central Government responds to the challenges of the new normal with a firm posture of reform,and deleveraging is the top priority of the reform task.Macroeconomic leverage is an important link between financial and real economy.The dynamic changes in macroeconomic leverage have an important impact on macroeconomic development and financial stability.The asset price mechanism is an important channel through which macroeconomic leverage exerts influence on economic development and financial stability.Therefore,through the discussion of the mechanism and effect of the impact between macroeconomic leverage and asset prices,it will be helpful to further enrich the understanding of the price transmission mechanism between financial and real economy and within the various branches of the real economy,and it also provides theoretical and empirical support to control leverage.This paper firstly defines and discriminates some of the important concepts involved in the paper,and sorts out the existing researches on macroeconomic leverage and asset prices,thus providing theoretical guidance for carrying out the research of this paper.Then,the author further analyzes the endogenous decision-making mechanism of equilibrium leverage ratio and its characteristics of cyclical fluctuations based on the microscopic perspective of the lever cycle theory at the theoretical level.Based on this,it clarifies the relationship between the asset price and the lever cycle operation process.The mutual influence mechanism then rises to the macro level,and we discusses the periodic fluctuation characteristics of macroeconomic leverage and its effect on the asset price and its volatility,thus laying a theoretical foundation for empirical analysis.Then,the author selected 66 quarters of data from January 2001 toJune 2017,and made the empirical analysis of the relationship between macroeconomic leverage and economic cycles,asset prices,and assets price volatility through the establishment of VAR models,Granger causal analysis,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition and other empirical techniques.The empirical results show that:(1)The macroeconomic leverage cycle in the theoretical analysis exists,and there is a dynamic causal relationship between the economic cycle and the economic cycle.(2)The cyclical changes in macroeconomic leverage have no significant effect on asset prices,but cyclical changes in asset prices have a significant impact on the macroeconomic leverage cycle,and macroeconomic leverage is in a passive relationship with the interaction between asset prices.(3)The impact of the macroeconomic leverage cycle on the volatility of asset prices is relatively small.The impact of asset price volatility on the macroeconomic leverage cycle is relatively large,but the impact of the two is not significant.Finally,this article puts forward relevant suggestions from the perspective of leverage management,in order to achieve the policy objective of promoting the positive interaction between the macroeconomic leverage cycle and the economic cycle,and preventing and resolving financial risks.