The Impact Of Leverage On Asset Price Fluctuations

Against the background of Sino-US trade frictions,the external environment of China's economic development has undergone adverse changes.Internally,China's economy is in a critical period of adjusting the economic structure and transforming the mode of economic development,and is facing the interweaving and superposition of various contradictions and problems.Therefore,the risks of economic accumulation are increasing and downward pressure on the economy is increasing.Therefore,it is still one of China's major tasks to continue to fight against major risks and maintain a stable macro-leverage ratio.Although moderate leverage is conducive to economic growth and development,excessive leverage often tends to cause large fluctuations and bubbles in asset prices,raise systemic risks in the economy and finance,and even induce crises,thereby jeopardizing finance and the real economy.Therefore,studying the impact of leverage on asset price fluctuations will not only help stabilize macro leverage,optimize the structure of leverage,and maintain a reasonable level of leverage,but also help avoid systemic financial risks and even crises caused by large fluctuations in asset prices.The lever of this article is the four-sector lever,that is,the government,financial,non-financial corporate,and household sectors.At the same time,real estate price fluctuations and stock price fluctuations are selected as representatives of asset price fluctuations.Specific studies on different leverages on different The impact of asset price fluctuations,analysis of the mechanism and specific effects.Firstly,the concept of leverage and other related concepts were defined and analyzed,and the related literature on the relationship between leverage and asset prices was reviewed.Secondly,based on the theory of "debt-deflation" and the theory of leverage cycle,this paper further analyzes the mechanism and effect of leverage on asset prices from a theoretical level,and then provides theoretical guidance for empirical analysis.Finally,by selecting 231 sets of monthly data on the leverage ratio of four sectors and the volatility of stock and real estate prices from October 1999 to December 2018,a VAR model was established,using Granger causality tests,impulse responses,and variance decomposition.The empirical analysis and test of the impact of leverage on asset price fluctuations.The results show that:(1)the effect of leverage on asset price volatility is lagging;(2)the effect of impact,different levers have different effects on different asset pricefluctuations.Among them,the leverage of the government sector and the leverage of the non-financial corporate sector have a downward negative effect on real estate price fluctuations,and the leverage of the financial sector and household sector have an upward positive effect on real estate price fluctuations.Leverage of the government,non-financial corporate and household sectors has no significant effect on stock price fluctuations,only financial sector leverage has an upward positive effect on it;(3)leverage has a certain effect on asset price fluctuations,but But it is not the main factor.The main factor that affects asset price fluctuations is itself;(4)Conversely,asset price fluctuations also have an effect on leverage.