Research On Joint Optimization Of Purchasing And Inventory Of Aluminum Alloy Foundry Enterprises Based On Uncertain Raw Material Demand

After entering the socialist market economic system,China's non-ferrous metal industry has developed far more than in the past,with aluminum alloy smelting and aluminum alloy-related alloy components casting the most representative of the rapid development.Since the aluminum alloy foundry industry is very sensitive to market fluctuations,when it is reflected in the production process,it will cause companies to make reasonable decisions on raw material procurement and inventory holding strategies.In addition,due to the macroeconomic and industrial development bottlenecks,the prices of aluminum ingots in upstream raw materials have become more volatile in recent years,and the volatility is more difficult to predict than before,which has a great impact on the production costs of downstream companies.Under this background,studying the costs incurred in the production process of an enterprise especially the costs incurred in the enterprise's ordering decisions of optimizing the production and sales cycle,in order to reduce the inventory costs and procurement costs,is very important for enterprises to improve their operating efficiency..Firstly,this article describes the characteristics of the aluminum alloy casting industry,explains the continuity of raw material supply required by the company,the price uncertainty in the current market environment,the sensitivity of the industry to changes in market demand,and the actual procurement methods for ordering in phases.And comprehensive research.Secondly,this article aims to control the company's procurement and inventory costs,and analyzes and explains the Bayesian forecasting theory under the uncertain demand environment and the multi-phased ordering of the production cycle adopted in this paper when the raw material price fluctuates.The ordering model of this paper has studied the related theories that build this model.Thirdly,this paper researches and proposes an optimization model of purchasing inventory based on the uncertainty of demand and raw material price uncertainty,giving the Bayesian method.Predict the formula and distribution model for the demand in the production cycle,and put it into the phased ordering model,put forward assumptions and related parameter settings for the model establishment,and finally formulate the current optimization ordering decision in the forecasting environment and pass Time lapses and information updates continue to adjust at subsequent points in time Ordering strategy;Fourth,based on the model proposed in this paper,an example analysis of raw material procurement and inventory issues of an aluminum alloy casting company,using MATLAB software and LINGO logistics optimization software,solving the model to obtain the optimal ordering decision at the current time With the ordering scheme with continuous adjustment of the intermittency,the total cost of the cycle is calculated and analyzed.Finally,the deficiencies of this study are fully analyzed,and the future of how to further optimize the company's procurement inventory is forecasted.