Research And Application On Demand Forecasting Technology Of Materials For Grid Enterprise

With the further deepening of the reform of electric power system,the comprehensive promotion of the construction of the five set of China State Grid Corp,and the concept of the management of material management,put forward higher requirements for the material management of power grid enterprises.Power grid enterprise material demand forecast as the material management flow to be the starting point of the information,is the key link to promote the level of intensive management,and material demand forecast accuracy and timeliness restricts development level of material management.Reasonable and scientific forecast of demand of goods has gradually become important topic for power grid enterprises to improve management,seek the development of power grid enterprise material demand for accurate prediction,on the one hand,can be caused by more capital backlog,inventory backlog phenomenon is avoided and the effective to improve the material level of intensive management,on the other hand to improve the power grid enterprise core competitiveness also has a important significance.Paper illustrates the content,features,aspects of design flow,the development and the forecast methods for material requirements planning.Present the condition of material requirements planning and difficulties in power grid enterprises in details.Besides,the paper concludes the advanced methods,practices and practical application of technical analysis management of material requirements planning of domestic and international,based on internationally accepted prediction methods and tools for material requirements forecast model design.The provincial power grid enterprises in-depth research on the basis of demand forecasting model for their company's current production operating conditions,constructed with suitable materials,material requirements planning to promote more scientific and rational and efficient,timely supplies,reduce the cost of consumption,warehouse management science,promote the upgrading of materials management level,thus deepening intensive management of company resources.Demand management through the establishment of materials "three models" that are the demand factors model,material demand forecasting model and material categories match the relational model,the formation of a differentiated annual materials demand forecasting model system to improve the accuracy and timeliness of material needs,improve procurement efficiency and utilization of funds.According to the material classification of power grid enterprises in W province,this paper predicts models with historic data,compares the accuracy of demand forecasting,and forecasts material requirements in the next two years,then makes the conclusion and outlook Material Demand prospects,provides a reference for the provincial power grid enterprises to make material requirements planning.