| Since 1994,China has gradually promoted the process of exchange rate marketization,and the central bank has carried out a series of reform of exchange rate system.In 1994,the people's Bank of China implemented the exchange rate.In July 21,2005,the people's Bank of China once again improved the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and began to implement the managed floating exchange rate system.After 2010,the exchange rate market process is in full swing,and the internationalization status of RMB is also increasing.Many countries have incorporated the RMB into the reserve currency,and the export pricing is RMB.In international trade,the export enterprises must take the consideration of exchange rate risk into the operating cost.Exchange rate volatility has become an important factor affecting export pricing.If we pay with RMB,we can reduce exchange fees and avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.It is more favorable to export industries such as clothing,machinery and engineering electronic equipment.Therefore,the export industry will avoid the exchange rate risk and promote the effectiveness of the exchange rate policy.This paper studies the elastic difference in exchange rate transfer in the sub sectors,and puts forward some pertinent conclusions and suggestions.Using monthly data from January 2005 to November 2017,this paper constructs the basic model of the impact of RMB nominal effective exchange rate on export prices in sub-sectors,which from 3 aspects of exchange rate transmission existence,exchange rate transmission asymmetry and exchange rate transmission time variability.First,based on the stationary test and cointegration test,we analyze the exchange rate transfer coefficient of the cointegration equation.It is found that there is no exchange rate transmission effect in some industries,and the elasticity of exchange rate transmission is positive in some industries,and the elasticity of exchange rate in some industries is negative.Then,based on Cao Wei's(2010)model,we investigate the asymmetry of exchange rate transmission in different industries when the exchange rate rises,devalues and rises and devalues.The results show that the transport equipment industry,such as vehicles and ships,has significant exchange rate transfer asymmetry,and the exchange rate rises more than 1%,and HS10 and HS13 industry are affected by the small change of exchange rate.Then this paper uses the state space model to analyze the changes in the exchange rate transfer elasticity of the 19 industries,focusing on whether the exchange rate reform in 2005,2010 and 2015 causes the change of the exchange rate transfer elasticity,and mainly analyzes the trend and reasons of the change in the exchange rate transfer coefficient of the 6 major export industries.The conclusion shows that the exchange rate transmission coefficient in July 2008 changed greatly,and the change in June 2010 was more obvious,but there was no obvious fluctuation in August 2015.The exchange rate coefficient of HS11,HS16 and HS17 tends to be negative after 0,indicating that they have strong export competitiveness and obvious advantages.HS06 represents the products of chemical industry and related industries.Its exchange rate transfer coefficient is negative to positive in the sample period,and it is outstanding in export industry.Finally,based on three models and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward three policy suggestions: from the national level,we should improve the exchange rate system and cultivate the anti risk ability of the export enterprises.From the perspective of industry,we should strengthen the industrial innovation and improve the value-added of the products.We should improve the foreign exchange derivatives market and strengthen the supervision mechanism from the market perspective. |
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