| Grain is the foundation of the people's livelihood.Food security is not only a social problem but also a political problem.With the development of China's grain market and the gradual improvement of the degree of openness,the factors affecting the supply and demand of the grain market have gradually become diversified and complicated.The frequent fluctuations in international grain prices have greatly influenced the production and life of grain producers and consumers in recent years.Corn,as an important grain variety in China,plays an important role in China's food security.In recent years,the stock and consumption rate of corn has increased sharply,which has brought pressure to the rise of domestic corn price.Study on the influencing factors of corn supply and demand comprehensive help to further understand the law of supply and demand changes in the corn market in our country,in order to provide the policy-making basis for the stability of China's corn market,and promote China's corn market healthy and stable development,provide a reference for the control strategy of other varieties of grain in china.This paper from China's corn supply and demand situation,a systematic analysis of specific situation of China's corn production,consumption,trade and other aspects of the inventory,with the graph reflects the development situation of our country corn changes since 1990.Furthermore,based on the analysis framework of partial equilibrium theory,a partial equilibrium model of corn market in China is constructed,which is composed of seven behavioral equations,namely,the area equation,the yield equation and the feed consumption equation of corn,two defining equations and one equilibrium equation.The results showed that the long-term trend of China's corn prices and corn acreage has steady growth,corn demand gradually increased,mainly corn consumption and industrial corn consumption growth,the domestic corn prices "upside down" phenomenon exists for a long time,corn export was severely suppressed,a large backlog of inventory,corn trade deficit phenomenon is serious.The partial equilibrium model estimation results show that the corn planting area by the planting area and the mechanization level of influence,the main factors influenced the yield of corn pesticide and fertilizer inputs and natural disaster rate,the per capita disposable income has made a big contribution to the corn feed consumption and industrial consumption.The impact of international corn prices on the market price of corn in China is relatively limited,temporary storage policies to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers,promote maize production and price stability,the corn price fluctuations in the volatility of international prices under the background remained relatively stable,but also caused a large backlog of corn stocks in China,both at home and abroad corn prices upside down.Based on the above research findings,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from the perspective of improving maize production efficiency,stabilizing corn market,improving corn price formation mechanism,and coordinating domestic and foreign markets. |
