The Equilibrium Analysis About The Impact Of Supply And Demand For Rapeseed By The Fluctuation Of Petroleum Price

Petroleum is one of the most important basic economic resources in the current world, standing at the top of almost all of the industry chains, so its volatility in prices will affect the supply and demand of a various commodity in the market. China is one of the largest consumers of petroleum. As the economic developing in China, the gap between the petroleum's demand and supply will become larger and larger and the fluctuations in international petroleum prices will impact on China's economy more and more serious. As a result, it is quite necessary to analyze the impact of fluctuations in petroleum prices on China's market in all areas. This article explores the impact of the volatility in petroleum prices on China's rapeseed market.Rapeseed contains rich oil, each producing about 35% ~ 45% oil. It is the main oil crops and one of the bee crops in China, so three will be great economic significance and social benefits in the development of oilseed rape production. Some articles reveal that the prices of the chemical fertilizers, pesticides and other agricultural have great impact on the petroleum prices. Lin Weilong mentioned if the price of crude oil rises 5%, the costs of agricultural industry will go up with 1%; if the price of crude oil rises 10%, the costs of agricultural industry will go up with 2% ;if the price of crude oil rises 20%, the costs of agricultural industry will go up with 4% in his article. The purpose of this article is to analyze at the background of the fluctuations in petroleum prices, what's the impact of the agricultural corresponding input costs' change on the rapeseed and related changes in agricultural products. This article brings in the trend of the petroleum prices to derive the movement trends in the rapeseed and other agricultural products market.The datas of the World Energy Outlook 2008 from EIA show that,from 2008 to 2017 low petroleum prices forecast will be decreased at an annual average of 3.86%,and high petroleum prices forecast will be rose at an annual average of 5.97%. In the context of low-priced petroleum forcast, rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices were an average annual decline in the proportion of 2.3% and 4%. In addition, the cultivated area of rapeseed will be changed to some extent which will be downward trend.It is expected to fall below 8 million hectares in 2010, and 7.015 million hectares in 2017. From 2007, the cultivation will decrease at an annual average of 1.8%; The yield of rapeseed will increase at an annual average of 2.33%; The production of rapeseed oil will increase year by year, to reach about 5.6 million tons in 2017; China's per capita consumption of rapeseed oil will increase from 3.2 kilograms in 2006 to 3.7 kilograms in 2017. In the context of high-priced petroleum forcast, the price of rapeseed,wheat and other crop prices will rise at an annual average of 4.9%; The cultivated area of rapeseed will increase at the proportion of 0.2% per year. This shows that the price of agricultural products is significant to acreage of farmers.In the context of low-priced petroleum forcast,the Acreage of wheat and rice will not change too much in recent years. In 10 years, the planting area of rice will drop 0.56 percent, and wheat acreage will decline by 9.4%.The yield of rice is mainly between 6.24 tons/ha and 6.25 tons/ha.The yield of wheat will increase a certain percentage from 2006's 4.28 tons / ha to 2017's 5.19 tons / ha,up to 21.26 percent ratio.Net imports of the two crops are continuously reduced, mainly due to foreign price keeping upward trend.Between 2006 to 2017, the annual per capita demand of rice dropped by 10.45 percent, and the annual per capita demand of wheat dropped by 1.54%,in the case of food demand. In the context of low-priced petroleum forcast, the Acreage of wheat will decrease at an annual average of 0.88%.