Urban Expansion Simulation Of Coupled Planning Space Control And Demarcation Of Urban Development Boundaries

With the rapid urbanization in recent years,the contradiction between land demand of urban construction and cultivated land protection is obvious.The existing spatial planning in China conflicts with each other on content,and it is difficult to effectively control urban development and construction activities.Therefore,the demarcation of the urban development boundary as an important space control tool and the effective way to coordinate the spatial contradiction of planning has become the focus of urban development research in recent years.Taking the main city proper of Qinzhou as an example,on the basis of analyzing the planning content and space control effectiveness of each spatial planning,we use the "Two rules" space control integration conversion probability to show the spatial development intention of land use planning and urban planning in guiding urban development and construction.Incorporate space influencing factor constraint,planning control index constraint,neighborhood influence constraint and stochastic influence constraint are embedded in that state transformation rule of the constrained CA model,we got the simulation result in the urban spatial pattern of the main city area in the year 2025.On the basis of the spatial simulation results,the construction land needs of key projects of national economic and social development planning are implemented,and the requirements of environmental planning and protection of ecological space are met,and the urban development boundary of the main city proper of Qinzhou is finally determined by combining the natural boundary elements.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The difference in the planning content and space control effectiveness of each spatial plan is large,the space control of Land use planning is stronger than urban planning.The planned construction land scale is not reasonable,which is not conducive to effective control of the sprawl of urban construction;(2)the Kappa coefficient of the simulation result and the actual comparison in 2015 was 0.76,which verified the applicability of the method of "two regulation" space control zones integration in guiding the urban space simulation;(3)In 2025,the spatial pattern of the main urban area is in line with the urban development strategy of the various plans,using the constrained CA model based on the guidance of planning space control and planning control index constraint.It is proved that this method has high reliability in simulating urban development pattern in rapid urbanization area;(4)Based on the simulation results,the implementation of the national economic planning and other planning space requirements,combined with the natural boundary final border of urban development,realize the control content and the urban development planning space boundary delimitation of effective connection,effectively improve the efficiency of the urban development boundary delimitation and science,can be widely applied to the actual urban development boundary delimitation.