Study On The Effect Of CNY Exchange Rate On The Real Estate Market Price In China

Since the reform of the CNY exchange rate in July 21,2005,the CNY exchange rate is no longer pegged to the dollar,but a basket of currencies.And until now,Chinese is implementing a managed floating exchange rate system.Since then,the CNY has continued to appreciate.By January 2015,the intermediate price of CNY against the dollar was 6.13,which reached the highest point since the reform,and the value of appreciation reached 25.88%.The real estate market in C hina has been very hot in recent years,and the house prices are running high.In the past,the collapse of the real estate market caused by fluctuations of the Thai baht and the Japanese yen and the huge has a great impact on the two economies.So,the appreciation of the CNY and the rise of housing prices arouse great concern from all walks of life in China.The related concepts of the exchange rate and the price of the real estate market are introduced,and over the years the CNY against the US dollar,the euro,the yen exchange rate trend are analysised.And the development status of the real estate market is briefly introduced.Based on previous analysis under the influence of exchange rate mechanism of real effect the real estate market prices,and in 1980 s the yen appreciation and the devaluation of the baht international case study.According to various effect mechanisms,I choose the average selling price of commercial housing,the real effective exchange rate of CNY,the short-term capital flow,foreign direct investment,the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the money supply as variables.The monthly datas of these variables is selected from July,2005 to May,2017.Then,I found the VAR model and make the ADF unit root test,Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test and make estimate for the VAR model.The conclusion is that the influence of CNY exchange rate on Chinese real estate market price is complex.The CNY exchange rate has a significant impact on Chinese real estate market price through capital inflow effect mechanism and spillover effect mechanism,but by the wealth effect mechanism and the expected effect mechanism,it has no significant impact on C hinese real estate market price.The CNY exchange rate increase by 1%.,the price of the real estate market changed by 0.63 percentage points through foreign direct investment after 5 months and the price of the real estate market changed 0.41 percentage points through the money supply after 4 months.On this basis,I put forward policy suggestions on the foreign exchange market and the real estate market,in order to promote the healthy development of the two cities.