The Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of RMB Internalization Under The Belt And Road Initiative

After experiencing the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the subsequent European debt crisis,the economies of various countries were affected to varying degrees,making all countries pay more attention to choosing more reliable safe-haven currencies.From the history of development of major currencies in the world,it can be seen that the internationalization of a country's currency is a gradual process that requires the comprehensive development of political and economic strength,and constantly seizes opportunities to adjust policies in time to keep pace with the world economy.The industrial revolution,the two world wars,and the Korean War are irreproducible historical events.The experience of European economic integration cannot be replicated as well.The internationalization of a country's currency needs constant exploration and experimentation.However,an analysis of the process of the internationalization of the world's major currencies can lead to the conclusion that keeping the exchange rate stable,promoting stable and rapid economic development,expanding foreign trade and foreign investment,and constantly improving the financial system are all important influencing factors for currency internationalization.The RMB has achieved a certain degree of regionalization within the Asian region and can freely flow within some Asian countries as the RMB internationalization developed.China has already established RMB clearing banks overseas in more than 20 countries and regions overseas and has signed currency exchange agreements with more than 30 countries,laying a good foundation for the further development of RMB internationalization.The proposal of the Belt and Road provided new opportunities for the internationalization of RMB.The Belt and Road has increased the export of RMB and cross-border settlements while promoting the economic development of the region along the route.It has also promoted the development of China-led international financial platforms and increased the right of RMB.In this paper,I use the Bank of China's RMB offshore index as an indicator to measure the internationalization of RMB,and analyze the chain growth rate of GDP,the exchange rate of US dollar against RMB,the settlement amount of RMB for cross-border trade,the balance of foreign direct investment of China,and the impact of RMB deposit balance of Hong Kong for RMB internationalization through the VAR model.Based on the results obtained by the VAR model,the impact of the above indicators on the internationalization of RMB is analyzed,and policy recommendations are proposed as well.