An Empicial Analysis On The Influence Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes On Sino-U.S Trade Balance

This article explores the topic of China's huge foreign trade surplus and the appreciation of the RMB,which are widely concerned by the academic community in recent years.Through a review of related classical theories of elasticity analysis,multiplier analysis,income analysis,etc.,we explored changes in the RMB exchange rate in China.A rational theoretical explanation of the relationship between the revenue and expenditure of the import and export trade,and the establishment of a model based on these theoretical foundations,and an empirical analysis of the time series were used to test the actual data.Because the RMB exchange rate actually started from the reform of the exchange rate system in 2005 and truly became the floating exchange rate managed by the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market and a certain amount of government regulation and control,the paper chooses the newest one,from Jul.21,2005 to 2017.The real exchange rate of RMB against the U.S.dollar,the GDP of China and the United States and the quarterly data of China's import and export to the United States are used as samples to find out through the time series co-integration analysis that during the sample period,especially after the financial crisis,The trade impact of the United States is at a stage of rising trade surpluses in the "inverted J curve." Since the elasticity of demand for import and export to the United States at this time is opposite to that in the Sher-Lerner terms,the appreciation of the RMB will not only bring about trade Deficit,on the contrary,will aggravate the increasingly serious trade surplus in our country.However,over time,although the initial exchange rate did not have a clear inhibitory effect on trade balance,the exchange rate of the RMB has gradually begun to show its effect on the adjustment of bilateral trade imbalances.Therefore,theChina's trade balance is in the early part of the Inverted ‘J curve'.In addition,this paper also believes that the trade imbalance between China and the United States should fully consider the impact of factors such as the economic structure of the two countries,market supply and demand,U.S.policy restrictions,and differences in statistical methods,and should not be blamed solely on changes in the exchange rate of the RMB and the normal exchange rate policy of China.change.In order to resolve the trade disputes between China and the United States and balance of payments,it is necessary to seek a solution to the problem of imbalance in Sino-US trade from a broader perspective.China should strengthen exchanges and cooperation with the United States on the basis of improving its exchange rate policy so as to eliminate the misunderstandings and boycotts of the Trump administration and the U.S.public over China's trade surplus with the U.S.,and at the same time vigorously promote the upgrade of China's industrial technology and foreign trade structure.Upgrade,from labor exporting countries to technology exporters.In addition,through the expansion of domestic demand,we can resolve the export pressure on the dependence of China's productive forces on foreign countries and resolve the imbalance between China's and US' trade.In addition,we can start from the aspect of changing the main body of foreign trade,optimize the trade surplus,and improve China's international competitiveness.In general,China's status as a foreign trade surplus has both historical inevitability and necessity.Therefore,increasing or decreasing the trade surplus is not a fundamental goal.The export-oriented strategy and the policy of accumulating surpluses and accumulating foreign exchange reserves have been implemented before.To no longer meet the needs of the current situation,it is necessary to rethink the previous understanding,dialectically understand the issue of exchange rate devaluation and trade surplus,and clarify the direction of further development of foreign trade.