| Since the subprime mortgage crisis,the global economy continued to decline,the balance of Non-performing assets rose sharply.China government has introduced a series of policies to resolve the problem of Non-performing assets.Due to the lack of Non-performing assets information,few reference cases,and the high degree of information monopoly,the evaluation of Non-performing assets become a worldwide problem.This paper reviewed the theories of Non-performing assets valuation and the research on real estate price forecasting.Paper makes a study on the valuation of collateral value on Non-performing assets.This paper first summarizes the related literatures of Non-performing assets pricing,economic cycle and real estate cycle,summarizes the relevant research theories,and summarizes the existing problems of Non-performing assets pricing in the light of the current disposal practice of asset management companies.Secondly,based on the valuation model of income method,the valuation model of Non-performing assets under different disposal modes is constructed.Also,paper makes a study on discount rate on the liquidation scenario and the discount rate.In this paper,we established a complete discounted discount system of real estate mortgage in the Acquisition of Non-performing Assets.The estimation model of discounted discount rate is constructed by using comprehensive evaluation method and AHP model.The Non-performing assets has the relationship with the economic cycle,financial cycle,real estate cyclethe real estate cycle.The paper analyzes the influence of the cycle factors on the Non-performing assets.According to the such study,we get the following conclusions:The financial cycle is the leading indicator of the Non-performing assets cycle and the best time to acquite non-performing assets based.Based on the above theoretical research,ARIMA and SVM combined forecasting model are used to predict the real estate price index,and the traditional non-performing asset valuation model is revised.Finally,the paper applies the above-mentioned research to the valuation of non-performing assets through a real case.. |
