| A new era of our country's economic dynamic moment is the world's attention,and in recent years,frequent use quantitative monetary tools in our country,leading to monetary policy to the governance effect of inflation is weakened to a great extent,so the exchange rate as a price type of monetary policy tools has become more important.As the representative of the external value of currency,the fluctuation of exchange rate will be transmitted to the domestic price through the import and export price,which will affect the domestic macroeconomic development.Since reform and opening-up constantly adjust and improve the exchange rate system,from July 2005 began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system,exchange rate and prices have been's rising status,until 2015,"811 yuan" the end of the continuous appreciation of the situation and begin to depreciate significantly,further intensify the volatility.Under the adjust of exchange rate system,therefore,will promote the price transfer effect of the exchange rate in China,nearly 10 years of domestic currency transfer effect is a high pass or low pass became the focus of scholars.In this paper,the influence of exchange rate system reform on exchange rate transfer is conducive to improving the understanding of the nature of macroeconomic price volatility,inflation governance and the effectiveness of exchange rate system and monetary policy.In theory,first analyzed the exchange rate to the price of direct and indirect transmission channels,to fully transfer the influence factors of the theoretical basis to the incomplete pass the detailed elaboration,and on this basis,select the foreign price index,industrial production and money supply as control variables to empirical research.In empirical research,first of all,the Bai-Perron endogenous structure mutation test(2003)2003-2012 data is divided into three interval,reapply ARDL model analysis both short-term and long-term effect and comparison of each interval passes.Finally,based on the VAR model,the change of the exchange rate of the first and second interval is analyzed.Through regression analysis,it can be concluded that:(1)in the long term,exchange rate changes and price changes show a negative correlation,but the transmission effect is not high,which will not bring excessive inflation or deflation pressure;(2)the pass-through rate of exchange rate to CPI in the first and second interval was slightly lower,while the pass-through rate to PPI was significantly enhanced,and the pass-through degree to PPI was significantly higher than that of CPI,indicating that the pass-through effect of exchange rate was enhanced after the reform in 2015.(3)compared with the first three intervals,the increase in exchange rate volatility has strengthened the price pass-through effect of exchange rate.(4)the exchange rate fluctuations lead to the increase in the prices of food,household goods,medical care and housing,while the reverse is the decline in the prices of clothing,communications and entertainment education.Although some effects increased in the late period of reform,the large proportion of food offset the overall transmission effect.(5)the contribution rate of exchange rate in food,household goods,entertainment education and residence increased,and the explanatory ability was relatively stable.Therefore,the following policy Suggestions are given to promote the stability of China's economic development.Attach importance to major events with sudden changes in economic structure;Greater interaction between exchange rate system and monetary policy;Correctly understand the causes of incomplete exchange rate transmission and price instability. |
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