Real Estate Development Project Risk Assessment Studies Based On Support Vector Machine

The real estate industry is a pillar industry in China.In recent years,the rapid development of real estate has gradually exposed a series of problems,such as the high price of housing and the risk of bubbles.Under the "new normal" of the economy,tightening and tightening are the basic trends of real estate policies.Real estate developers often face various risks during project development and need to analyze these risks.However,the risk characteristics of real estate development projects have non-linear characteristics that make risk assessment difficult.Therefore,the risk of real estate development projects is analyzed and researched,and scientific and reasonable risk assessments are made so as to provide decision-making basis for the development of real estate projects.This article is based on the developer's perspective and conducts risk assessment research on real estate development projects.First of all,through the literature research method,combing the theory of risk management and risk assessment of real estate development projects,summarizing the existing research deficiencies,and thus put forward the necessity of risk assessment research of real estate development projects.Second,based on the whole life cycle theory,from the perspective of real estate developers,the risk of real estate development projects is analyzed.Based on this,a preliminary design of the risk assessment index system for real estate development projects was conducted.The importance of the index system was tested through a questionnaire survey.The final design included the risk in the development decision phase,the risk in the pre-preparation phase,the risk in the construction phase,and the rental and sales management.There are 4 primary indicators of stage risk,20 secondary indicators such as policy risk,development opportunity risk,development location risk and land acquisition risk.Thirdly,the risk assessment model of real estate development project is constructed based on support vector machine,and the model is tested through case analysis.The evaluation result is consistent with the actual situation,and the validity and feasibility of the model are verified.Finally,combining the conclusions of the case studies,suggestions were made to circumvent the risk of real estate development projects from the four aspects of strengthening national regional policy research,broadening financing channels,reducing schedule risks,and reasonably positioning.The innovations of this paper are as follows: Firstly,the risk assessment index system of real estate development project is designed based on the whole life cycle theory,and the second is the risk assessment model of real estate development project based on support vector machine.