Research On The Evaluation And Prediction Of The Investment Risk Of Shanxi Old-age Real Estate

The old-age real estate, as a kind of real estate, can bring investor both huge profit andserious risk, due to nature of indetermination when a investment decision is made.Generally, the huge profit is overvalued and many risky factors are not taken intoaccount systematically and comprehensively, and even worse, all the serious risks areignored. Once a invest fails, the damage followed is unsustained. Presently, no riskevaluation model of the old-age real estate investment is established, and the studyabout it would be of great importance both theoretically and actually.In this paper, a review of the studies and some conceptions concerned toinvestment risk of the old-age real estate is made. Combining with the fact of theold-age real estate in Shanxi Province, a comprehensive consideration of risk withrespect to environment, economy, society, and interior decision-making andmanagement is made. The old-age real estate investment evaluation index system ofShanxi Province is built, what’s more, and it’s applied to the evaluation and predictionof the real risk and to make the evaluation and prediction result much more reasonableand accurate.In order to make a better evaluation and prediction, the old-age real estateinvestment risk of Shanxi is taken into example and is studied both qualitatively andquantificationally. A large number of visits to specialists and veterans are paid, andthe result is evaluated with the theory of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process(FAHP).Then the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is applied to the prediction of thevisit result and a preferable matching precision is achieved.Based on the research achievement concerned to investment risk of Shanxiold-age real estate that have been achieved, this paper provide a theoretical basis tobuild a integrated investment risk evaluation model of the old-age real estate.Furthermore, it’s helpful to direct relevant enterprises to invest and make a decision.