Forecast Of Urban Infrastructure Investment In China And Its Impact On Economic Growth

In the process of accelerating the development of urbanization and realizing the modernization of cities,one of the most important elements of urban construction and development is infrastructure investment.Infrastructure investment plays an important role in measuring the level of urban development,improving the quality of life of residents,improving the urban investment environment and improving the competitiveness of urban development,and plays an important role in the national economy and social development.Forecasting urban infrastructure investment and analyzing the relationship between urban infrastructure investment and economic growth can help investors and managers to make decisions.In this paper,firstly,the present situation of infrastructure investment in China is described and analyzed;secondly,two Bayesian smoothing models and algorithms are established,which take the parameters obtained from the rolling time series ARIMA model with a certain time length as the prior information.The obtained parameters Bayesian estimation and prediction can make full use of the sample information and the prior information of the parameters,and have smaller variance or square error,and the estimation parameters are more scientific.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and root-mean-square error(RMSE)were used to evaluate the prediction effect of the model,to compare the prediction effect of different models.The conclusion is that the prediction effect of Bayesian model is better than that of single time series model to some extent,which shows that Bayesian parameter estimation is scientific.Based on the error correction model,this paper analyzes the impact of Chinese infrastructure investment on economic growth,and obtains the conclusion that infrastructure investment has a positive impact on economic growth.Finally,according to the previous conclusions,corresponding policies and suggestions are put forward.