Credit Risk Assessment Of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises

In recent years,the frequent occurrence of credit risk incidents by SOEs in our country has caused great concern from a large number of investors and governments.As the most special form of enterprise in our country at present,it's own credit risk situation is of crucial importance to the entire macroeconomy.Therefore,this article focuses on the valuation of the credit risk of SOEs in our country,and on this basis,find out the key factors affecting the credit risk of the state-owned enterprises in our country.This paper first analyzes the current situation and the existing risk points of the SOEs,and then compares the current comparatively perfect evaluation models to fully discuss the basic principles,algorithm steps and advantages of each model shortcomings,the final selection of KMV model as the cut-off of credit risk assessment.As one of the most popular evaluation models at present,the KMV model not only fully considers the stock market information of most state-owned listed companies but also reflects the total debt situation,which is undoubtedly the best choice for the general high debt of SOEs.Simultaneously,in the process of constructing KMV model,the introduction of GARCH(1,1)model to solve the problem of stock price volatility and the use of quarterly weighted average risk-free interest rate,make it more dynamic and more accurate;Finally,we evaluate the credit risk of our state-owned enterprises in the field of new energy industry and put forward some suggestions and opinions accordingly.The results show that the improved KMV model is more in line with the current situation of state-owned enterprises in our country,comparing the state-owned enterprises with non-state-owned enterprises,and concludes that when the macroeconomy is relatively stable,the credit risk of SOEs is higher than that of non-state-owned enterprises The main reason may come from the strength of government support behind the state-owned enterprises.When the macroeconomic instability comes,the SOEs are facing a greater impact.In this case,the credit risk of SOEs is very high.Finally,according to the state of credit risk of state-owned enterprises and finding out the key factors influencing credit risk from the macroeconomic status and the financial status of enterprises,the main factors affecting the credit risk industry include:CPI?Shanghai Composite Index,Balance Sheet,Fixed Asset investment.