| In recent years,the growth of traditional foreign trade in China has slowed down,but due to the rapid development of Internet,information technology and international logistics,the emerging cross-border e-commerce has gone against the trend and cross-border e-commerce trade has continued to grow.In 2017,the total amount of cross-border e-commerce trade in China reached a record 8 trillion yuan,and the flourishing development of cross-border e-commerce trade in China has attracted great attention.The development of cross-border e-commerce will not only contribute to the expansion of employment and the improvement of people's livelihood,but also enhance the competitiveness of the national economy and enhance its position in the world economy.At present,our economy has entered the "new normal",the "supply side" reform is also advancing deeply,and the rapid and healthy development of cross-border e-commerce will certainly boost the structural transformation and high quality development of our economy.However,the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce inevitably leads to a number of problems,such as integrity,tax evasion and public safety issues which bring a lot of risk to the regulatory departments of cross-border e-commerce,especially to China's customs supervision.The Customs is the main administrative organ of the state to supervise the inward and outward movement of goods,postal articles and means of transport.With the rapid development of cross-border electronic commerce,the traditional mode of customs supervision can not adapt to the supervision of cross-border e-commerce.It is of great practical significance for our customs to realize rapid customs clearance and effective supervision of cross-border electronic commerce under the existing administrative framework and the premise of no significant increase in personnel.However,there are not many research achievements in the subject of risk of customs supervision over cross-border e-commerce,so it is necessary to study this subject.The purpose of this paper is to study the risk management system for the effective supervision of cross-border e-commerce by analyzing the risk of customs supervision of cross-border e-commerce.Customs shall formulate perfect risk prevention and control management mechanism,using the information regulation of advanced technology,through the data mining,analysis,assessment and projections for cross-border e-commerce,reasonable division of cross-border e-commerce and goods regulatory risk level,optimizing the allocation of the customs regulation of limited resources,in ensuring fast customs clearance of the goods at the same time,effectively reduce the risk of customs supervision,safeguard and promote the healthy development of China's cross-border e-commerce trade.In this paper,literature,comparative analysis and modeling empirical analysis are used to study this subject.In this paper,comprehensive analysis the regulation of China's customs to cross-border electronic commerce present situation,pointed out that China's customs in cross-border e-commerce regulatory risks that exist in the prevention and control problem and its reason,then use the data mining technology to establish the risk of customs supervision classification prediction model,and carry on the empirical analysis,based on the model to provide large data mining methods,combined with the related theory of risk management,puts forward the optimization of China's customs supervision of cross-border e-commerce risk prevention and control countermeasures and suggestions.In this paper,the suggestions of the external system environment construction,the internal law enforcement environment construction,the promotion of new type supervision mode,the accurate supervision through large data mining as well as the professional equipment supply,and the conclusion that China's customs should change the supervision mode,China's customs supervision should be precise and make full use of big data,has reference value to China's customs effective supervision on cross-border e-commerce to reduce the risk of supervision. |