Research On Micro-credit Risk Evaluation Of Countryside Commercial Banks

The rural commercial bank is a great achievement of rural financial system reform in our country,and it has become the backbone of the rural financial development in our country in this new era.The rural commercial bank has made a great contribution in promoting household micro-credit,supporting rural economic development,solving the problems of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers".However the household micro-credit has a enormous risk,and it's difficult to predict and control;The rural financial market is facing a competitive situation;In the process of the reform of the rural commercial Banks,the credit asset quality is poor,the loan risk is gradually exposed,and the industry risks what due to historical reasons are gradually accumulated and highlighted...These have brought unprecedented challenges to rural commercial banks.This research contents of constructing a micro-credit risk evaluation model and evaluate the risk,thus to give a guidance and support the development of micro-credit effectively.Based on the theory analysis of the of household micro-credit,this paper constructs a set of risk evaluation model that is based on the theory and specific practice of risk assessment in rural financial market.Among them,the evaluation index system contains four primary indexes:the natural characteristics of farmers,farmers solvency,macro environment factors,bank management and operation index.and it contains 19 secondary indexes such as age,health,etc.In the selection of indexes of this research the combination of qualitative and quantitative factors is considered,and the comprehensiveness and emphasis of indicators are also considered.The method of constructing the model is a fuzzy synthetic evaluation method,which can solve some problems of fuzzy and difficult quantification.Firstly,using AHP to calculate the index,secondly,constructing each index to membership functions,it is concluded that the membership degree of each index,finally calculating the comprehensive score,fuzzy synthesis for final evaluation.In the study we found that the financial leverage ratio of farm households,farmers' total income,and credit history had a greater influence on the index of risk,indexes such as the farmer's age,occupation,bank account holdings are less affected.At the same time,this paper also introduced the concept of loan "tipping point",divides four grades:set S<0.6131 as“the bad”,0.6131?S<0.8247 as“the middle”,0.8247?S<0.9397 as“the fine”,S?0.9076 as“the excellent”.In order to verify the validity of the model,this paper introduces A Rural Commercial Bank as a case for application analysis.Selection ten farmers micro-credit customer data of nearly three years.Through comparison both of the forecast before credit with the bank loan classification and the actual loan classification,the model reach a overall accuracy of 90%,compare with A bank the original model prediction accuracy of 60%,this new model has significantly increased in accuracy.At the same time,it is found that this model is superior to the original model in the indexes setting and processing and loan rating.The result shows that the model of sample classification result is consistent with the actual loan classification results.