Analysis Of The Impact Of Real Estate Credit On The Vulnerability Of Banking System

At this stage,China's financial structure still belongs to the bank-oriented type,and commercial banks play an irreplaceable role in the Chinese financial system.However,there is a certain irrationality in the structure of China's bank credit.For example,the rapid development of the real estate market in recent years and the optimistic expectations of the value of real estate assets have led banks to excessively put credit assets into the real estate market,but the resulting credit structure Unbalance has further increased the risk of the bank.When the development of real estate credit exceeds the red line that the Chinese banking system can withstand,it is bound to cause serious damage to the Chinese financial system.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between real estate credit and the fragility of the banking system in order to strengthen the healthy and stable development of the Chinese banking system and effectively prevent the impact of the international financial crisis.The research theme of this paper is the analysis of the impact of real estate credit on the fragility of the banking system.First of all,from the characteristics of modern and contemporary economic and financial development,combined with the development status of China's real estate credit,that is,the characteristics of excessive expansion of real estate credit and high growth rates.Secondly,the deep reasons for the vulnerability of China's banking system were discussed.It was found that the impact of China's real estate credit on the fragility of the banking system was mainly due to three channels: internal bank income,real estate prices,and credit concentration.Furthermore,we briefly introduced the development status of China's real estate credit and the fragility of the banking system,and found that there is a certain degree of non-equilibrium in the development of credit in our country.Real estate credit occupies a considerable share,and investors may also have some blind optimism.Based on the reference to the vulnerability index of domestic and foreign banking systems and the trend chart of China's banking system vulnerability index constructed in accordance with China's actual situation,it shows that the vulnerability of China's banking system is in an upward trend in recent years.Shocks are closely related to the economic shocks that China has experienced in recent years.Based on the data obtained,this paper empirically examines the causal relationship between the real estate credit scale,the proportion of real estate credit,and the vulnerability of the banking system.The results show that the proportion of real estate credit has a causal relationship with the real estate credit scale,and the real estate credit scale affects the bank.Systemic vulnerability exists in the same period causality;through impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition of real estate credit scale,real estate credit ratio and banking system vulnerability data,it is found that the real estate credit scale and real estate credit ratio have a certain degree of vulnerability to the banking system.Impact,and the degree of influence increases over time.Finally,based on the research results,this paper puts forward the countermeasures for governance and prevention of the fragility of banking system from the perspective of real estate credit management and real estate credit management as well as the related credit business rational management and control,and provides a more stable financial platform for China's real economy development.