Wuliangye Company's Financial Risk Early Warning Study

In recent years,with the continuous adjustment of the national macro policy and the change in the altitude of people,the market of liquor industry is gradually shrinking,with increasing competition over the years.The golden age of year 2002 to 2012 has long gone.With the increasingly challenging market,on one hand,the liquor industry has to deal with the reform of the market,keep adjusting the overall development direction of the company.On the other hand,a risk alert system should be built as the company is developing rapidly.The risk alert system analyzes the financial data of the company and find out the possible financial risks in the operation of the company to ensure that the managers will be able to immediately come up with solutions to the financial risks of the company,to maximally reduce the loss of the company and develop in a good way.In this thesis,the financial risks of the Wuliangye company will be investigated with a risk alert model for the Wuliangye Co.,Ltd.(hereinafter referred to as the Wuliangye company).First,the financial situation of the Wuliangye company in three years(year 2015,2016 and 2017)is compared in this article and the average of three years is calculated and compared with average situations of the other 19 similar listed companies in the same market and the average situation overall in the liquor market.With the already available research conclusions,analysis was done for the profiting capability,repaying capability,operation capability and developing capability of the Wuliangye company.The correlation between the financial data of 20 quarters of the Wuliangye company is tested with the Pearson Correlation Coefficient analysis.Ten of the financial indexes were chosen to build the financial alert model with Efficacy Coefficient Method for Wuliagnye company.And the Efficacy Coefficient Method was optimized according to article "Temporary regulatory guidance for the comprehensive performance evaluation of central enterprises" published by SASAC in 2016.The financial indexes were evaluated on five different levels.Finally,several advices are provided based on the internally financial situation of the Wuliangye company,hopping to provide some guidance for the operators,debtors and shareholders in making decisions.In this thesis,according to the situation of the development of liquor-making industry in China and the operations of wuliangye company in recent years,wuliangye company has been established to guard against financial warning model in companies operating in the process of potential financial risks.At the same time,this paper analyzes the financial index data of wuliangye company in recent years,and combined with the evaluation result is the risk of a comprehensive analysis,according to the results of the analysis put forward some Suggestions,hope can give operators of wuliangye company,creditor and shareholder decision-making to provide some reference value.