The Impact Of RMB Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation On China's Export Trade

In July 2005,the reform of China's exchange rate system entered a new stage,that is,the RMB exchange rate system has been adjusted from the fixed exchange rate system to the United States dollar into a managed floating exchange rate system.However,the international financial crisis that followed in 2008 has severely hit the US economy and spread to China's economy and foreign trade.In the last forty years of reform and opening up,China's export trade has developed rapidly.Exchange rate is an important factor affecting export trade.With the reform of the RMB exchange rate and the deepening of internationalization,the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate is more vulnerable to the influence of international economic and political factors,especially after the "811 remittance" in 2015,the RMB exchange rate elasticity is further enhanced.What is the trend of RMB exchange rate's impact on the development of China's export trade? As we all know,the United States is the main partner of China's export trade.The changes in the economic situation of China and the United States affect the exchange rate and volatility of China and the United States,and will also have a certain impact on China's export trade to the United States.This paper uses the sample data from August 2005 to December 2016 to measure the volatility of the bilateral real exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB by establishing the GARCH model,and uses the Johansen cointegration test model and the error correction model to analyze the impact of Sino-US real exchange rate and its fluctuation on the China's export trade to the United States.The results of the study show that:1.In the long run,China's overall export is greatly influenced by the changes in the exchange rate of China and the United States.The long-term revaluation of the RMB does not inhibit the growth of China's export trade.When the RMB is appreciating relative to the dollar,it not only improves the export of China's goods,but also increases our country's trade surplus with the United States.It also confirms that the US has repeatedly asked for RMB appreciation to ease the Sino US trade imbalance,which is not effective.2.The fluctuation of US dollar to the real exchange rate has a significant impact on China's export to the US in the long run,and it shows a positive role.The effect in the short term is shown to be lagging behind.Most industries show that the exchange rate volatility has a significant inhibitory effect on the export volume in the lag period.3.The income level of the United States is also an important factor affecting China's export trade to the United States.It is estimated that the actual income of the United States has a significant positive effect on export.The long-term trade surplus of China and the rapid development of export trade depend on the economic situation of the trade partner countries,and the dependence on foreign trade is relatively high.When the world economy is depressed,China's foreign trade situation will face a serious impact.4.The estimated results from the subdivision industry show that the effects of different categories of commodity exports are greatly different from the changes in the exchange rate and volatility of China and the United States,showing different results in the long term and in the short term.