Quantitative Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Import And Export Trade In China And The United States

In the past 30 years, under the continuous development of economic globalization, the complementation characteristic between China and America economic, the direct investment from American multinational company to China, and after China joining into WTO, the development of economic trade relationship between China and America advanced rapidly. But this kind of development influenced by various factors wasn't smooth. There are factors of economy as well as polity, military affairs, culture, and so on. This dissertation begins from the economic aspect. Making use of E-G two stage method and ECM(error correction model), it analyzes the index collected, then accordingly confirms the impact factors of economy. Then it analyzes the non-economic factors which influence the economic trade relationship between China and America, such as political system, different ideology, statistical standard, strategy relation of two countries. Besides these ones, America controls the export of high technique to China severely, and limits Chinese activity through intellectual property rights and quota restriction, etc. These factors not only destruct the US-China balance of economic trade seriously, but also obstruct the development of economic trade relationship. Finally the dissertation puts forward policy suggestions and solution which is advantageous to improving economic trade relationship of two countries as a result.China and America are two greatest economies in the world. Keeping a good and stable economic trade relationship, not only accords with both parties' basic benefits, but also benefits the steady development of world economy. Therefore, for making the economic trade relationship of China and America develop continuously and healthily, it is necessary to research the structure characteristics, scale, causation, influence of unbalance between two countries, etc, consequently to make both parties treat this problem objectively, relax the friction of two countries. This is exactly the theories meaning of this dissertation. To be pointed out, while selecting index, this dissertation brings the economic factors which influence the economic trade relationship of two countries into the system as more as possible, and it adopts data of quarter degree to increase sample capacity. In addition to the exchange rate between two countries, economic development level and price index of two countries studied by other scholars, we lead foreign direct investment(FDI) into the error correction model. In addition, it is strict on dealing with the times data. Especially disposing the consumer price index (CPI) is very complicated. The content will appear in the body of the dissertation. What's more, this dissertation analyzes the nominal and real value of import and export. It means that we will make four parts analysis. The results reflect economic phenomenon from different aspects.