Heterogeneous Expectation And Spatial Spillover Effects Of Housing Prices In Guangdong Province

In recent years,housing prices in some cities in Guangdong Province have increased significantly,and real estate has gradually become one of the asset choices for households to protect property allocation.At present,many scholars have realized that people expect that housing prices will rise in the future is an important factor to promote the current housing demand is strong,rising housing prices,and proposed to regulate house prices by regulating expectations.What is the internal correlation between the general rise in house prices in Guangdong and rigid demand and investment demand? Is rising house prices expected to have an effect on housing demand and housing prices in neighboring cities? This is the main concern of this article.In this paper,we first use global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation analysis methods to prove that there is a significant positive correlation between housing prices in 21 cities in Guangdong Province,and conclude that the housing prices in Guangdong Province show a two-level aggregation phenomenon,and the housing prices in the cities The difference presents a gradually increasing trend;secondly,in order to further explore the impact of rational expectations and adaptive expectations on housing prices in Guangdong and its spatial spillover effects,this paper uses the housing equilibrium model and adopts Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2016.The panel data of each city studied the impact of different housing price factors on housing prices in Guangdong Province and its spatial spillover effect.The study found that:(1)There is a clear spatial spillover effect in Guangdong Province.When the expected effect of rationality is less than the expected role of adaptability,consumer speculation is mainly based on speculation activities in the previous house price changes.(2)Under rational expectations,income factors have the greatest impact on surrounding house prices,and they are positively correlated;urban house prices are expected to rise.As a result,people's rigid demand for housing in the city will decline,and the demand for rigidhousing in neighboring cities will increase;the population of the city will increase.Capital flows to developed cities,leading to a drop in housing prices in surrounding cities.(3)Under adaptive expectation,the housing price lagging behind in the first phase and the previous period have a positive spillover effect on housing prices in Guangdong;when investment demand dominates,the expected rise in housing prices will cause capital to flow into the city,which will have an inhibitory effect on housing prices in surrounding cities.