A Study On The Effectiveness Of Housing Finance Macroprudential Policy

Recently,Chinese real estate market also emerged a new feature--the regional differentiation of housing prices.In this context,the government has repeatedly stressed the classified regulation of "due to the city system" to strengthen the macroprudential management of housing finance.Therefore,it is of certain significance to analyze specific situation of the housing finance macroprudential policy on the effect of intervention on the housing market among cities.Using panel data of new and second-hand housing market in 70 large and medium-sized cities,this paper analyzes the effect of the downpayment policy,the required-reserve policy and the combined effect of the two parties on the house price by constructing the panel quantile regression model.The empirical results show that:(1)The housing finance macroprudential policy has a significant adjustment effect on house prices.A month after the implementation of the housing finance macroprudential policy,the growth rate of housing prices has at least decreased by 0.1%.(2)Among the cities with different rate of change in house prices,the housing finance macroprudential policy shows obvious heterogeneity in the regulation effect of housing price growth.The overall effect of the downpayment policy in the two markets is "U" shape.For cities with high and low rates of change in house prices,tightening the downpayment policy makes the growth rate of housing prices drop by about 0.4%.The statutory reserve requirement policy is more effective for cities with relatively high rates of change in housing prices.The implementation of legal reserve policy has resulted in a drop of at least 0.12% of the growth rate of housing prices.The combined effect of the two increases with the rising rate of house prices.The joint implementation of policies has led to a drop of 0.1% to 0.3% in house prices.(3)The effect of the downpayment policy in the secondary housing market is obviously stronger than that in the new housing market.But the effect of the legal deposit reserve policy and the combined effect of the two parties are relatively close in the two types of markets.(4)In terms of the symmetry of policy effects,the effect of the statutory reserve requirement policy and its combination with the downpayment policy is asymmetric in the two markets.The effect of the downpayment policy is symmetrical in the new housing market.Finally,based on the results of the analysis,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to further enhance the control effect of housing finance macroprudential policy in Chinese housing market.